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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 0da6f0f..499a462 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,32 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 35 (2026-07-16): FULL-EPOCH TRIO SEALED — 1.0x-cost zero-gap confirmed; the ride governor wins on BOTH metrics; dip-statistics caveat formalized. +| run (C512 full epoch) | best val | tail median (last 6k) | +|---|---|---| +| BP twin | 1.2311 | 1.2823 | +| **stage1b_ride (governor)** | **1.2016** | **1.3034** | +| stage1b_cent (centered) | 1.2334 | 1.3241 | +| stage1b_plain3e3 (plain, 1.0x) | 1.2371 | 1.3259 | +| stage1b_est15 (switch rule) | 1.2374 | — | +- plain3e3 1.2371 = the zero-gap-class result at 1.0x estimator cost: RECIPE SIMPLIFICATION + CONFIRMED (plain single-sided + big-beta schedule; centered's full-epoch edge 0.0037 < band). +- ride beats every EP arm on BOTH best AND median (median edge over cent: 0.021) — the governor's + dynamic schedule (big-beta bulk, auto-taper endgame, beta down to 1.7e-4 at the end; 20 gn-guard + skips in 58.8k) genuinely improves the steady state. +- HONESTY RULE (formalized): ride's best 1.2016 < BP's 1.2311 is VARIANCE-ASSISTED (beta surfing + raises val variance -> deeper dip harvest under the best-of-noisy-val convention). By tail + median BP still leads ride by 0.021. Do NOT claim EP<BP from this. Paper-grade numbers move to + a fixed large final-eval protocol; the internal ledger keeps the best convention for + consistency with all prior entries. + +### RESULT 34 (2026-07-16): BETA-BUYBACK — partial. Quantization tax shrinks with beta but does not vanish. +qb6_b1e2 (6-bit compute quant, beta 1e-2): 1.2794 vs beta-matched control 1.2571 -> tax +0.0223, +down from +0.0348 at beta 1e-3. Direction confirmed (a wall-1 epsilon component exists), magnitude +~1/3 reduction for 10x beta — a second, non-beta-scaling component remains (weight-grid roughness +is a function-space perturbation, not just read noise). Spec consequence: the 8-bit operating +point stands; do NOT plan on beta rescuing 6-bit devices; ENOB acceptance bar stays ~7. + ### RESULT 33 (2026-07-16): TRIPLE VERDICT — centered CE-neutral at 72M too; CE-vs-beta monotone through 1e-2; the RIDE GOVERNOR beats every static beta. 1. 72M A/B (resume fw72m_cent s175000 -> 185000, single-GPU B24, identical schedule): plain 3.4288 vs centered 3.4289 — IDENTICAL. The 42M decoupling replicates at crown scale: |