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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 499a462..9b509c1 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,21 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 36 (2026-07-17): PRE-REGISTRATION — ride seed campaign + fw72m_ride crown-3 + the BP-fairness note. +User call: "多跑几条 ride, 在 72M 跑 ride — 说不定真比 BP 好, 因为我们没扫 BP 的最佳 setting." +Launched: +- fw72m_ride (GPU1+3, DDP, from scratch, seed 1): PLAIN estimator + ride governor (bf_late + 3e-3@20k, bcap 0.9, ride 30, up 1.01), 234k steps. Predictions: (a) governor surfs, few guard + events; (b) best <= 3.33 (plain==centered + governor edge); (c) wall-clock ~20h (plain speed + 3.3 it/s vs cent 1.96). This is the 1.0x-cost crown. +- stage1b_ride_s2/_s3 + stage1b_bp_s2/_s3 (GPU0 chain): seed distributions for BOTH sides of the + comparison. Metrics: best AND tail-median AND (new) fixed large-eval on FINAL weights — both + trainers now save the final-step ckpt (protocol upgrade, this commit). +- FAIRNESS NOTE (user's point cuts both ways): the BP twin has never been tuned (mirrored EP lr/ + schedule). Any EP-vs-BP ordering claim requires a BP lr/schedule mini-sweep — queued as the + next GPU0 item after the seed chain. Until then, "EP matches BP" is claimable; "EP beats BP" + is not, regardless of seed outcomes. + ### RESULT 35 (2026-07-16): FULL-EPOCH TRIO SEALED — 1.0x-cost zero-gap confirmed; the ride governor wins on BOTH metrics; dip-statistics caveat formalized. | run (C512 full epoch) | best val | tail median (last 6k) | |---|---|---| |