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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 74eb7c8..b958574 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,35 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 25 (2026-07-15): ERROR-SOURCE DECOMPOSITION — the bias lives ENTIRELY in between-block transmission; within-block reads are exactly lossless. +Probe: probe_blockcos.py (GPU0, s45000 C512 ckpt, 4 batches, fp32). Exact factorization +{anchor: free/nudged} x {cotangent: exact-c/EP-transmitted-d}; all four corners share one code +path (selfcheck (free,c) vs BP = 1.000000). +| corner | meaning | cos vs BP (beta 1e-3) | +|---|---|---| +| (nudged, d) = EP | the training estimator | 0.9987 | +| (free, d) = TRANS-only | transmission error alone | 0.9987 (== EP, per-block profile identical) | +| (nudged, c) = ANCHOR-only | local-read displacement alone | 1.0000 (1.000 x12 blocks) | +Depth profile (0=bottom..11=top): 1.000 at top -> 0.997 at bottom, ~3e-4 loss per hop, +monotone compounding — the between-block fingerprint (also explains why L3->L12 gates barely +differ: 12 hops x 3e-4). +K-sweep twist: K=1 -> EVERYTHING 1.0000 (d derived at free states = exact vjp chain = BP +reproduced through block-local ops). K=3 = K=8 = 0.9987/0.9988 -> the error is the O(beta) +DISPLACEMENT OF THE SELF-CONSISTENT nudged solution (saturates immediately; NOT settling +truncation — K8 doesn't help; NOT local curvature — ANCHOR=1). beta 1e-3 vs 3e-3: 0.9987 vs +0.9989 (insensitive — this bias term is far below the noise term's beta-sensitivity). +Readings: +- ANSWER to "block内EP过程 vs block间PC连接": the bias is 100% transmission (PC-connection side); + the within-block theta-read at displaced anchors is exactly free. (Digital-twin statement; on + analog hardware within-block reads acquire device noise instead.) +- WHY CENTERED WINS, mechanistically: +/-beta averaging symmetrizes the self-consistent + displacement — kills the odd O(beta) term of exactly the one error source that exists. +- The K=1 degeneracy is a digital-only shortcut (free-state vjp chain = BP-with-local-ops; a + referee would rightly kill the BP-free claim for K=1). K>=2 = the physically-faithful + self-consistent settle; its bias price is 0.9987 = not the binding constraint (noise is). +- C128's gate cos 0.805 (ladder) is the NOISE term at small gn, not this 0.999-level bias; + RESULT 23: that noise only costs CE at deep fit. + ### RESULT 24 (2026-07-14): fw72m_cent LAUNCH — window-aware centered crown rerun (pre-registered). User call: "72m从头跑centered试试看". From-scratch 234k-step FineWeb rerun applying RESULT 22: original fw72m flags EXCEPT --est centered, --bf_late 3e-3 --bf_late_at 20000 (ride the arms-winner |