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Diffstat (limited to 'docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md')
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 22d836f..c590b60 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,28 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 31 (2026-07-16): DECOUPLING VERDICT — the tail win is ALL beta; centered is CE-neutral at 42M tail. RESULT 22's mechanism reading corrected. +The missing arms7 control (user-demanded): plain single-sided @ beta 3e-3 flat tail. +| arm (45k->55k) | best | note | +|---|---|---| +| ctl (plain @1e-3) | 1.2678 | | +| **arm_plain_f3e3 (plain @3e-3)** | **1.2590** | = centered to the 4th decimal | +| arm_cent_f3e3 (centered @3e-3) | 1.2591 | | +| arm_centmirror (mirror @3e-3) | 1.2590 | downstream parity of the mirror trick CONFIRMED | +beta share of the tail effect: 101%. Readings: +- RESULT 22's causal story ("O(beta^2) bias lets beta ride high") is REFUTED at this scale: plain + rides 3e-3 equally well. The O(beta) secant bias at 3e-3 is measurable in cos but COSTLESS in CE + — third independent confirmation that direction-space error does not price CE; only SNR does. +- The zero-gap driver in stage1b_cent (1.2334) is therefore suspect of being pure-beta too: + **stage1b_plain3e3 full epoch queued** (post-crown, GPU1/3). If it lands ~1.233, the C512 + zero-gap recipe simplifies to plain + big-beta = 1.0x cost, and centered/centfast/centmirror + demote to cos-telemetry tools pending a scale where bias binds. +- 72M check queued (post-crown A/B): resume fw72m_cent s175000, 10k steps, centered-continue vs + plain-switch at identical schedule — decides whether the crown recipe needs centered at all. +- Auto-triggered beta ablation RUNNING (share>=0.5 rule): plain @ {2e-3, 5e-3, 1e-2} + centered + @1e-2 — maps CE-vs-beta and where plain's O(beta) bias finally bites; 1e-2 arms double as + 42M wall-2 probes (guard telemetry free). + ### RESULT 30 (2026-07-16): QUANTIZATION Delta-vs-Delta MATRIX — equal at the operating point, EP-SPECIFIC tax below it. BP mirror suite complete (bp_qctl baseline 1.2171 — resumed-tail+amp beats the original fp32 twin, which is exactly why in-family baselines were required; user's methodology point vindicated). |