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Diffstat (limited to 'docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md')
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 9de77a0..2919da6 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,25 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 45 (2026-07-18): NO-FLOOR VERDICT — the corridor TRULY CLOSES for the plain lineage (ceiling falls 260x with no shelf); fail-soft property of pure tracking CONFIRMED. Plain judged DEAD as a full-schedule 72M recipe; centered-rescue 2x2 cell in flight. +fw72m_plain_nf (resume plain s190000, cap_floor 0, exact mirror): COMPLETED 234k, best 3.3838 — +set at ~195k (matches crown-3's pre-death 3.3836) and NEVER improved after: the cap crushed +beta 3e-3 -> 9.3e-4@200k -> 2e-4@208k -> 1e-4@220k -> 1.1e-5@232k, monotone with NO SHELF. +The ceiling is really gone (not a hard-bottom artifact); with res>0.02 persisting at beta=1e-5 +the meter is reading FREE-PHASE contraction loss (state property, beta-independent) — consistent +with the 07-14 wall-2 regression at 72M/FW ~195k. +FAIL-SOFT CONFIRMED: gn <=0.4 / drift 0.012 / zero skips / no spike / weights un-poisoned +(val drifts 3.5 -> 4.1 by SNR-dead noise-walk) — vs crown-3's hard-bottom fail-BURN (gn 29.5, +cos -0.76, drift 0.39, spike). cap_floor 0 is the strictly safer governor policy; the hard +bottom bought crown-3 its extra 0.011 of best (floor-fight learning 196-204k) at the price of +late-run poisoning. +DECISION (user pre-committed): plain cannot hold the 72M/FW full schedule -> centered. Cheapest +form = the decisive 2x2 cell fw72m_plain_c190 IN FLIGHT (centered est on the SAME plain s190000, +cap_floor 0, otherwise identical): centered holds the ceiling -> HYBRID recipe (plain bulk + +centered tail, ~1.13x cost) is live and 2x2 completes as state-rescuable-by-estimator; +centered also collapses -> plain bulk bakes the disease in before 190k -> full-run centered only +(crown stays fw72m_cent 3.3318 at 1.67x). + ### RESULT 44 (2026-07-18): GAP-SOURCE LOCALIZATION — the residual EP gap lives in the TOP-half blocks, split ~evenly attn/ffn; bottom-half EP grads are loss-equivalent to BP. bpmix 5-arm, all from cent s200000 through the 215k endgame frame (shared frame; internal A/B only, absolutes not comparable to crown lineage). BP reference (allbp) 3.4020; all-EP 3.4245 |