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Diffstat (limited to 'docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md')
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 2919da6..d33f7b6 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,20 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 46 (2026-07-18): ENDGAME-42 TABLE — BP is lr-robust (reference stands); plain@3e3 honest 3-seed gap +0.042; ride's edge is MID-phase only. +Late probes (cent s150000 -> 160k): fix_late 3.4448 vs rv2as_late 3.4464 — tie/fade (mid-stage +ride won by 0.004; late it buys nothing). Riding harvests only where floor << ceiling; late-phase +floor 3e-3 is already at the ceiling. Recipe note: ride = early/mid tool. +42M plain@3e3 seeds: 1.2371(s1)/1.2731/1.2572, mean 1.2558 +-0.018 — s1 was the LUCKY draw +(mirror of BP where s1 was the weak one; dip-statistics bites both ways). The old s1-vs-s1 +"plain ~ cent" read was two outliers shaking hands. +BP lr sweep (s1): 7e-4 1.2119 / 1e-3 1.2311 / 1.4e-3 1.2136 -> flat plateau across 2x lr; +no better setting exists in range; BP reference = 3-seed mean 1.2141 (fair, user's +best-setting question answered at 42M). +HONEST 42M LADDER (best val, n-seed means): BP 1.2141 (n=3) | cent 1.2334 (n=1, s2/s3 QUEUED +on GPU0) | ride 1.2449 (n=3) | plain3e3 1.2558 (n=3). Gap ordering cent < ride < plain matches +the 72M stability ladder — same estimator hierarchy at both scales. + ### RESULT 45 (2026-07-18): NO-FLOOR VERDICT — the corridor TRULY CLOSES for the plain lineage (ceiling falls 260x with no shelf); fail-soft property of pure tracking CONFIRMED. Plain judged DEAD as a full-schedule 72M recipe; centered-rescue 2x2 cell in flight. fw72m_plain_nf (resume plain s190000, cap_floor 0, exact mirror): COMPLETED 234k, best 3.3838 — set at ~195k (matches crown-3's pre-death 3.3836) and NEVER improved after: the cap crushed |