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| -rw-r--r-- | docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 17 |
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 34d16d5..76cf71d 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -59,6 +59,23 @@ under-convergence, fix = scale K with depth, then relaunch full 3-seed at min-su verdict. If K8 does NOT close it -> genuine estimator depth-tax; next arm = beta-floor (needs a code flag) and/or lambda_l per-layer energy weighting (B4). Follow-on (not yet launched): Muon-on-EP arm. +### RESULT 1 (2026-07-10 00:40): K REFUTED as the lever; BP 3-seed sealed. +- BP 3-seed reference SEALED: 1.9169 / 1.9194 / 1.9214 = **1.9192 +/- 0.0019** (L12 C512 H8). +- **cos is K-INVARIANT.** K3 and K8 track to 4 decimals through step 1200 (both 1.0->0.9997->0.9991) + AND give identical val CE at every matched step (900: 2.545 vs 2.548; 1100: 2.399 vs 2.404). + More relaxation rounds do NOTHING -> the cos erosion is NOT fb under-convergence. K8 killed (redundant). +- **Real mechanism = finite-beta SNR collapse.** beta_t = beta0*bscale*(SIG0/sig)^2 collapses ~120x + (3e-3 -> 2.5e-5) as sig_tok grows 1.6->17.8. The estimator computes E/(NBT*beta_t) from residuals + (z-o) that are O(beta_t*sig) ~ 4e-4 obtained by subtracting two O(17) states -> catastrophic + cancellation as beta shrinks AND sig grows. Both worsen with depth. cos erodes 1.0 -> 0.997 (@2000) + -> 0.98 (@2800 in the dead run). This is a beta-SCHEDULE problem, not a relaxation-depth problem. +- **Fix under test:** added `--beta_floor` / `--beta_fixed` flags. Launched paired arms seed 1 + (control = K3 floor=0, still running): `d1b_ep_bf1e4_s1` (floor 1e-4), `d1b_ep_bf3e4_s1` (floor 3e-4). + Decision rule: if floored cos stays high through step 2000-2800 and CE drops toward BP 1.919 -> + beta-floor is the depth fix; pick min-sufficient floor, run 3-seed K4 verdict. Watch drift guard at + the higher floor (larger nudge). If floors DON'T help -> escalate to double-sided estimator (cancels + O(beta) Taylor bias, allows large beta, 2x cost) or lambda_l energy weighting. + ## STATUS 2026-07-09 (same day): Tier 0 CLOSED GREEN via the zil scheme; C1 running - **Naive relaxation FAILS at depth** (the B1-lite sweep): jacobi K=40·L → cos 0.82 (L6) / 0.67 (L12) |