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| -rw-r--r-- | docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 22 |
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 1606dd2..a73f28b 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,28 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 64 (2026-07-28): NOT A PLATEAU — A CONSTANT-RATE RELATIVE LEAK, 4-5x wider at +C768; every named suspect cleared AT PROBE RESOLUTION; the leak-rate probe is the new instrument. +LEDGERS CLOSED: 72M BP n=3: 3.2884/3.2943/3.2820 -> mean 3.2882+-0.006. Honest 72M gap: +bsign(n=2) +0.076 (7.9% ppl); cent(n=1) +0.044. — fp32 A/B (both arms died at s275000 +torch.save: DISK FULL, 100%/10T shared NFS; pruned 458GB of intermediate ckpts, 652 files, +manifest runs/PRUNE_MANIFEST_260728.txt, 39 landmarks kept): fp32@3e-3 window val_mean 3.5538 +vs amp 3.5891 vs fp32@1.5e-3 3.5843 -> amp DEMOTED to minor contributor (~12% of the deficit); +R63's "amp is THE mechanism" corrected. +SUSPECTS CLEARED (with resolution caveats): systematic bias at C768 <= sem (probe_bias nb=12: +plain ~ sem everywhere; w2_b11 0.81% vs sem 0.51% = the one 1.6x flicker); Muon amplification +NONE (msign cos 0.9987-0.9994 vs raw 0.9998-1.0000); sigma/scale runaway NONE (tok_rms +IDENTICAL to 3 decimals; BP head LOUDER: sig1 744 vs EP 620 — the louder-states trajectory is +normal training, not EP pathology). +THE SHAPE (schedule-fraction matched): 72M gap hovers +0.04..0.09 and the anneal CLOSES it +(0.087@80% -> 0.047@100%); 135M gap grows near-linearly +0.10/0.16/0.20/0.28/0.29 — a +per-progress leak, 4-5x the 72M rate, that the anneal cannot outrun; "plateau" = leak rate +catching BP's descent rate. Required per-step magnitude: ~1% CORRELATED discrepancy — exactly +at/below every probe's floor. The 0.999-cos-yet-diverging paradox is the finding. +IN FLIGHT: leak-rate paired probe — SAME weights (s250000), EP vs BP, 6k steps each, direct +DCE readout; calibrates the leak instrument for recipe search (anything that cuts measured +leak-rate is a candidate; full-run validation only after). + ### RESULT 63 (2026-07-27): MECHANISM CLOSED — THE AMP CERTIFICATE BREAKS AT WIDTH AND THE C768 CORRIDOR INVERTS MID-RUN; every 135M EP failure mode falls into place. Chain of three probes (all GPU0, hours): (1) blockcos @s150000: fp32 EP gradient PERFECT |