From 5da39cf68b19b1be997db1956026af3f68576f73 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Yuren Hao Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 14:45:16 -0500 Subject: =?UTF-8?q?RESULT=2075:=20dg128=E5=AE=8C=E8=B5=9B=E5=8F=A3?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=BE=84=E5=88=86=E8=A3=82(best=E5=9B=9E=E5=B8=A6+0.049/?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=B0=BE=E7=AA=97=E6=9C=AA=E5=9B=9E=E5=B8=A6+0.133,=E5=85=B3?= =?UTF-8?q?=E9=97=AD84%/63%=20vs=20=E4=BB=AA=E5=99=A897%);=20=E7=BB=AD?= =?UTF-8?q?=E8=B7=91=E6=AC=A0=E8=B4=A6vs=E5=89=82=E9=87=8F=E6=BC=82?= =?UTF-8?q?=E7=A7=BB=E4=B8=A4=E5=80=99=E9=80=89,=E8=B0=B1=E4=BB=AA?= =?UTF-8?q?=E8=BD=A8=E8=BF=B9=E8=BD=B4=E8=A3=81=E5=86=B3;=20=C3=97128?= =?UTF-8?q?=E4=BD=8D=E7=A7=BB=E5=85=A8=E7=A8=8B=E9=9B=B6=E5=8F=91=E6=95=A3?= =?UTF-8?q?;=20class-2=E5=BD=92=E6=A1=A3?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn --- docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 16 ++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 931bee7..adbcaca 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -1878,3 +1878,19 @@ quantization (wall-1: beta-displacement below bf16 resolution) — exactly as di - Cost consequence: COST_MODEL.md v2.1 (sourced July-2026 prices: market H100 $1.87-2.99/GPU.h, AWS p5e blocks $4.97/GPU.h post-hike) — with amp measured, 3B-Chinchilla ~$40k / 7Bx20B ~$30k on AWS blocks: BOTH inside the $50k envelope individually. amp is the Stage-2 default. + +## RESULT 75 (2026-07-30): dg128 全程验证完赛 — 口径分裂，class-2 归档 +Matched 三口径（同窗 434-440k, n=61/臂）: +| 臂 | best | 尾窗中位 | +|---|---|---| +| dg128 (250k 起治疗) | 3.1387 | 3.3380 | +| bsign 未治疗 | 3.3839 | 3.5649 | +| BP twin | 3.0902 | 3.2051 | +- best 口径: gap +0.049, 回 72M 带(+0.076)以内, 关闭 84%; **尾窗口径: gap +0.133, 未回带, 关闭 63%**。 + 规范裁决用尾窗; best 是噪声评估的下探偏置(三臂都低 0.11-0.18, 含 BP → 口径病不是臂病)。 +- 仪器 97% vs 全程 63% 的差值解释候选: (a) **续跑只治后 190k 步** — 前 250k 未治疗欠账已烙进权重 + (dg128 resumed from untreated s250000, 探索性设计的固有混杂); (b) 剂量需求随走廊下沉增长, 6k 仪 + 器段低估长程需求。谱仪轨迹轴 (c768f23 vs c768f91) 直接裁决 (b); 裁 (a) 需 from-scratch treated 臂 + (~22h×3GPU, 等 geo 电池 + 谱仪结果再决定是否值得)。 +- 稳定性结论无保留: ×128 位移 190k 步零发散(drift 稳 0.008), 大位移在完整训练尺度安全。 +- 按 07-29 条令: class-2 exploratory, 不入 scaling 曲线; 价值 = "泄漏在全程可部分赎回" + 稳定性 + 上述口径教训。 -- cgit v1.2.3