From 4fb9908d9b04475c858bef066ac103ebd42ba88c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Yuren Hao Date: Sat, 18 Jul 2026 13:40:13 -0500 Subject: =?UTF-8?q?RESULT=2043+44:=20crown-3=20=E6=AD=BB=E5=9B=A0=3Dcap?= =?UTF-8?q?=E7=A1=AC=E5=BA=95=E9=92=89=E5=9C=A8=E5=A1=8C=E8=90=BD=E5=A4=A9?= =?UTF-8?q?=E8=8A=B1=E6=9D=BF=E4=B9=8B=E4=B8=8A(=E5=8F=98=E7=9B=B8wall-2);?= =?UTF-8?q?=20endgame=20A/B=E5=B9=B3=E5=B1=80(3.4245/3.4244)=E4=BC=B0?= =?UTF-8?q?=E8=AE=A1=E5=99=A8=E6=97=A0=E7=BD=AA;=20bpmix=E5=AE=9A=E4=BD=8D?= =?UTF-8?q?gap=E5=85=A8=E5=9C=A8=E4=B8=8A=E5=8D=8Ablocks(77%)attn/ffn?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=9D=87=E5=88=86,=E5=BA=95=E5=8D=8A=3D0;=20--cap=5Ffloor?= =?UTF-8?q?=E8=A1=A5=E4=B8=81+fw72m=5Fplain=5Fnf=E6=97=A0=E7=A1=AC?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=BA=95190k=E9=87=8D=E6=94=BE=E5=9C=A8=E9=A3=9E?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn --- docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 41 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 41 insertions(+) (limited to 'docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md') diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 90985cb..9de77a0 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,47 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 44 (2026-07-18): GAP-SOURCE LOCALIZATION — the residual EP gap lives in the TOP-half blocks, split ~evenly attn/ffn; bottom-half EP grads are loss-equivalent to BP. +bpmix 5-arm, all from cent s200000 through the 215k endgame frame (shared frame; internal A/B +only, absolutes not comparable to crown lineage). BP reference (allbp) 3.4020; all-EP 3.4245 +-> window gap 0.0225. Swapping module groups to TRUE BP grads: + mixbot (blocks 0-5) 3.4244 -> recovers ~0% of the gap + mixtop (blocks 6-11) 3.4071 -> recovers 77% + mixattn (attn, all) 3.4152 -> recovers 41% + mixffn (ffn, all) 3.4161 -> recovers 37% (41+37 ~= 77+0: additive decomposition holds) +Reading: bottom-half EP fidelity is a SOLVED problem at this scale (exact-BP substitution buys +nothing); the entire residual gap concentrates in blocks 6-11, attn and ffn about equally. +Tension with RESULT 25 (transmission bias compounds toward the bottom): bottom grads may be worse +in cosine yet loss-irrelevant in this window — update magnitude/role concentrates near the head. +HW consequence: fidelity budget (quant/noise/beta) should be weighted toward the top half. + +### RESULT 43 (2026-07-18): CROWN-3 CAUSE OF DEATH = CEILING CROSSED, THEN THE CAP'S HARD BOTTOM HELD BETA ABOVE THE COLLAPSED CEILING FOR 18k STEPS (disguised wall-2, user's read). Estimator-toxicity story DEMOTED; endgame A/B is a TIE. +Endgame A/B (from cent s200000, 15k steps): end_plain 3.4245 vs end_cent 3.4244 — dead tie, +both healthy (gn 0.147 / drift 0.009 / 0 skips; plain: one -12% cap graze @213.9k, instant +recovery). Estimator CE-equivalence now 3-way replicated (42M tail, 72M mid-tail, 72M endgame); +single-sided is NOT locally toxic on a healthy state. "不是plain不行" (user) confirmed. +Death timeline (simple-bounds-first per user): first cap bite @196k with ALL health metrics +normal — leads every symptom by 8k+ steps (gn 204k, cos-negative 217k, drift 216k, skips 225k). +Cap wrestles floor 196-204k (best 3.3728@203.7k set DURING the fight), then pins at the HARD +BOTTOM 0.05*beta = 1.5e-4 from ~216k with rho^>0.9 & res>0.02 continuously (v2 absolute-gate = +bites genuine). rho^ is a per-sweep residual contraction ratio — a WEIGHT-STATE property beta +cannot restore — so the governor had no lever and sat pinned ABOVE the true ceiling. Zero +r-skips until 225k: the relax never overtly diverged; death by sustained sub-ceiling-less +operation + SNR starvation, not explosion. +Controls: cent late-phase (150k-234k): ONE graze (221.8k). end_plain (plain est, cent state): +one graze in 15k. => ceiling collapse is a plain-LINEAGE-STATE property. sigma nearly equal at +200k (467.7 vs 463.0) => the lineage difference lives in block contraction ||J||, not W_out. +RESULT 42's "bias->sharpening positive feedback" narrative DEMOTED (user's evidentiary bar: no +direct literature for invisible-accumulation stories). Canonical citation that DOES cover +one-sided-fails/symmetric-rescues: Laborieux et al. 2021 (O(beta) estimator bias, deep-net +failure, +-beta symmetric fix = our centered). +ACTION: --cap_floor flag added (default 0.05 = legacy; 0 = pure ceiling-tracking, three hard +bottoms released). fw72m_plain_nf IN FLIGHT: resume plain s190000 (last healthy ckpt), cap_floor +0, exact crown-3 mirror, replay the 190k->234k death window. Survive => hard bottom was the +killer, plain viable at 1.0x (crown-3b = plain+no-floor). Beta free-fall + skip-storm stall +(weights preserved, fail-stop) => corridor truly closed => centered is the fix. R42's +est_late-flip candidate is MOOT either way (endgame estimator doesn't matter — tie). + ### RESULT 42 (2026-07-18): CROWN-3 VOIDED (user call) — slow-burn endgame instability the guards accepted; the SINGLE-SIDED estimator emerges as the common factor in both 72M deaths. User caught what skip-counting missed: gn rising / cos falling / CE rising from ~200k, spike at 231.7k, partial recovery — RESULT 41's "zero guard events = healthy" reading RETRACTED. -- cgit v1.2.3