From 1bce876b60e529d4cbaf6fed40c5acc051ff43f2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Yuren Hao Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 20:51:05 -0500 Subject: =?UTF-8?q?RESULT=2074:=20Phase=20M=E5=8F=91=E5=B0=84=E8=AE=A1?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=88=92(=E7=94=A8=E6=88=B7=E6=89=B9=E5=87=86)=20=E2=80=94=202?= =?UTF-8?q?=C3=97=E5=87=8F=E5=8D=8A=E9=98=B6=E6=A2=AF(C128/C192/C320?= =?UTF-8?q?=E6=96=B0=E7=82=B9+=E7=8E=B0=E6=9C=89=E4=B8=A4=E7=82=B9=3D?= =?UTF-8?q?=E4=BA=94=E7=82=B9=E8=B7=A812=C3=97);=E9=87=8F=E7=BA=B2?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=AE=A1=E8=AE=A1=E5=85=83=E8=A7=84=E5=BE=8B(=E7=A2=8E?= =?UTF-8?q?=E7=9A=84=E5=85=A8=E6=98=AF=E6=9C=89=E9=87=8F=E7=BA=B2=E5=B8=B8?= =?UTF-8?q?=E6=95=B0,=E6=B4=BB=E7=9A=84=E5=85=A8=E6=98=AF=E7=BB=93?= =?UTF-8?q?=E6=9E=84/=E5=8D=8F=E8=AE=AE);=E9=80=90=E7=BA=A7=E7=9B=B2?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=A4=96=E6=8E=A8=E5=8D=8F=E8=AE=AE(=C3=97128=3D=E5=BF=85?= =?UTF-8?q?=E6=B5=8B=E9=A2=84=E6=B5=8B=E9=A2=98),=E4=BA=A4=E4=BB=98?= =?UTF-8?q?=E7=89=A9=3D=E5=A4=96=E6=8E=A8=E5=9C=B0=E5=B9=B3=E7=BA=BF?= =?UTF-8?q?=E6=9B=B2=E7=BA=BF?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn --- docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 21 +++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 21 insertions(+) (limited to 'docs/campaign') diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index c29d476..931bee7 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -578,6 +578,27 @@ power law (dose ~ width^k -> soft wall, budget k for 270M) vs width THRESHOLD ne 0.076 gap hides a small closable leak (lk512 arms answer directly). Chained behind fw135m_dg128 on all three GPUs; ~12h of ladder after the validation completes. +### RESULT 74 (2026-07-29): PHASE M LAUNCH PLAN (user-approved) — the 2x-halving ladder + +successive-blind-extrapolation protocol; the deliverable is the EXTRAPOLATION-HORIZON CURVE. +Criterion (user): everything serves transfer to 1B & 8B; experience that cannot survive scale +jumps has zero inductive value. Meta-diagnosis from the wreckage: every broken constant was +DIMENSIONAL (beta, res-gate, amp certificate, dgain=128); everything that transferred was +STRUCTURAL (K-saturation, bsign stability, free-phase=forward) or a MEASUREMENT PROTOCOL +(rho probe, leak instrument). Transferable assets can only take three forms: dimensionless +laws, structural invariants, measurement protocols. A standing DIMENSIONAL AUDIT table will +classify every recipe element. +LADDER (frozen 72M recipe, no per-size tuning, class-1 data): C128/11M, C192/18M, C320/36M +(new, EP+BP twins, n=2 each, Chinchilla 20 tok/param) + existing C512/72M, C768/135M = five +points spanning 12x params. Queued behind dg128 on all 3 GPUs (~9h). +PROTOCOL (strengthened): fit any law on the SMALLEST points only; blind-predict upward rung +by rung (C320 -> C512 -> C768 -> C1152); the x128 dose at C768 is a mandatory PREDICTION +target. Log prediction error vs extrapolation factor = the horizon curve. Horizon >= 3x -> +1B (1.8x beyond C1152) is within demonstrated range; horizon < 1.5x -> the honest verdict is +"EP-transformer experience does not compress into transferable laws", which is decisive for +the hardware thesis too (a chip is a frozen recipe). +After trainings: M1 displacement spectroscopy + M2 per-nonlinearity linearization battery + +M3 optimizer-step differentials at every width; PREREG freeze before any validation run. + ### RESULT 73 (2026-07-29): GOVERNING DOCTRINE (user ruling) — NO TRANSFERABLE SCALING KNOWLEDGE EXISTS YET; positive scaling claims SUSPENDED; results reclassified into three strict classes; next phase = mechanism identification with a pre-registered transfer law and -- cgit v1.2.3