From 591a9af6450d43ee6e85f0d6c88a91c5dc7525c0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Yuren Hao Date: Sat, 18 Jul 2026 07:05:14 -0500 Subject: =?UTF-8?q?RESULT=2042:=20crown-3=20voided=20=E2=80=94=20slow-burn?= =?UTF-8?q?=20endgame=20instability=20accepted=20by=20hard=20guards;=20sin?= =?UTF-8?q?gle-sided=20estimator=20=3D=20common=20factor=20in=20both=2072M?= =?UTF-8?q?=20deaths;=20centered-as-armor=20hypothesis=20promoted?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn --- docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 20 ++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 20 insertions(+) (limited to 'docs/campaign') diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index a8ab69d..90985cb 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,26 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 42 (2026-07-18): CROWN-3 VOIDED (user call) — slow-burn endgame instability the guards accepted; the SINGLE-SIDED estimator emerges as the common factor in both 72M deaths. +User caught what skip-counting missed: gn rising / cos falling / CE rising from ~200k, spike at +231.7k, partial recovery — RESULT 41's "zero guard events = healthy" reading RETRACTED. +Forensics: bcap DID fire (beta 3e-3 -> 1.4e-3 @200k -> cap floor 1.5e-4 by 215k) but starvation +cannot cure a state disease (ride-deadlock replay, this time with NO governor overshoot). The +poison route: drift 0.25-0.32 updates ACCEPTED (hard threshold 0.5; only 2 skips) with garbage +quality (cos as low as -0.76) at starved beta. sig peaked 483. +PATTERN: original fw72m died 195k@1e-3; plain died ~200k@3e-3; cent sailed 234k@3e-3. +Common factor across deaths = single-sided estimator late-phase, NOT the beta value. +HYPOTHESIS (promoted): the single-sided O(beta) bias at large sigma*||J|| forms a positive +feedback (bias -> sharpening -> larger bias); centered's symmetric read cancels that term = +STABILITY ARMOR, not just CE polish. The 0.041 "discrepancy" and this death are one phenomenon. +MISSED PROTECTION (my scheduling error): beta_sync and drift_adapt existed on the shelf +(probe-validated) but were not given to the crown — "conservative" in the wrong dimension. +drift-EMA was 0.006 -> a 12x wall (0.072) would have rejected every poison accept. +ADJUDICATION IN FLIGHT: end_plain vs end_cent from clean s200000 (does single-sided sicken in +15k endgame steps?) + bpmix 5-arm localization. CROWN-3b deferred until they land; candidate +recipe: plain bulk + sync/drift-wall armor + CENTERED ENDGAME (est_late, meaning flipped). +Ledger: the 72M crown remains fw72m_cent 3.3318 (gap 0.043); a 1.0x-cost crown DOES NOT EXIST yet. + ### RESULT 41 (2026-07-18): CROWN-3 SEALED — fw72m_plain 3.3728 (gap 0.084 at 1.0x cost); a 0.041 plain-vs-cent discrepancy opens the ENDGAME question. fw72m_plain (from scratch, plain estimator, fixed bf_late 3e-3@20k, bcap defensive): 234k steps, best 3.3728, zero guard events. Ledger: BP twin 3.2884 | cent 3.3318 (gap 0.043) | plain 3.3728 -- cgit v1.2.3