From 2c32641b59de1ae725d595ce9e3f865d45fabc43 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Yuren Hao <yurenh2@illinois.edu>
Date: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 23:47:26 -0500
Subject: =?UTF-8?q?RESULT=2034+35:=20beta-buyback=20partial=20(+0.035->+0.?=
 =?UTF-8?q?022);=20full-epoch=20trio=20sealed=20=E2=80=94=20plain=201.0x?=
 =?UTF-8?q?=20zero-gap-class=20confirmed,=20ride=20governor=20best=20on=20?=
 =?UTF-8?q?both=20metrics,=20dip-statistics=20honesty=20rule?=
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn
---
 docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 26 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 26 insertions(+)

(limited to 'docs')

diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
index 0da6f0f..499a462 100644
--- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
+++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
@@ -568,6 +568,32 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected
 
 
 
+### RESULT 35 (2026-07-16): FULL-EPOCH TRIO SEALED — 1.0x-cost zero-gap confirmed; the ride governor wins on BOTH metrics; dip-statistics caveat formalized.
+| run (C512 full epoch) | best val | tail median (last 6k) |
+|---|---|---|
+| BP twin | 1.2311 | 1.2823 |
+| **stage1b_ride (governor)** | **1.2016** | **1.3034** |
+| stage1b_cent (centered) | 1.2334 | 1.3241 |
+| stage1b_plain3e3 (plain, 1.0x) | 1.2371 | 1.3259 |
+| stage1b_est15 (switch rule) | 1.2374 | — |
+- plain3e3 1.2371 = the zero-gap-class result at 1.0x estimator cost: RECIPE SIMPLIFICATION
+  CONFIRMED (plain single-sided + big-beta schedule; centered's full-epoch edge 0.0037 < band).
+- ride beats every EP arm on BOTH best AND median (median edge over cent: 0.021) — the governor's
+  dynamic schedule (big-beta bulk, auto-taper endgame, beta down to 1.7e-4 at the end; 20 gn-guard
+  skips in 58.8k) genuinely improves the steady state.
+- HONESTY RULE (formalized): ride's best 1.2016 < BP's 1.2311 is VARIANCE-ASSISTED (beta surfing
+  raises val variance -> deeper dip harvest under the best-of-noisy-val convention). By tail
+  median BP still leads ride by 0.021. Do NOT claim EP<BP from this. Paper-grade numbers move to
+  a fixed large final-eval protocol; the internal ledger keeps the best convention for
+  consistency with all prior entries.
+
+### RESULT 34 (2026-07-16): BETA-BUYBACK — partial. Quantization tax shrinks with beta but does not vanish.
+qb6_b1e2 (6-bit compute quant, beta 1e-2): 1.2794 vs beta-matched control 1.2571 -> tax +0.0223,
+down from +0.0348 at beta 1e-3. Direction confirmed (a wall-1 epsilon component exists), magnitude
+~1/3 reduction for 10x beta — a second, non-beta-scaling component remains (weight-grid roughness
+is a function-space perturbation, not just read noise). Spec consequence: the 8-bit operating
+point stands; do NOT plan on beta rescuing 6-bit devices; ENOB acceptance bar stays ~7.
+
 ### RESULT 33 (2026-07-16): TRIPLE VERDICT — centered CE-neutral at 72M too; CE-vs-beta monotone through 1e-2; the RIDE GOVERNOR beats every static beta.
 1. 72M A/B (resume fw72m_cent s175000 -> 185000, single-GPU B24, identical schedule):
    plain 3.4288 vs centered 3.4289 — IDENTICAL. The 42M decoupling replicates at crown scale:
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