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+# Current Results (Consolidated)
+
+Authoritative snapshot of where the project stands. Supersedes the framing in
+`00_project_overview.md` and `03_paper_outline.md` (both stale: they still say
+"redundancy-exhaustion **phase transition**" and omit the estimator). The
+current, correct framing lives here and in notes 18, 24, 26, 29, 34.
+
+## Central claim
+
+> Random feedback imposes a quantifiable, **soft** (non-threshold) operator
+> burden relative to BP that is present at every capacity margin (including
+> overparameterized) and grows smoothly as capacity tightens. The static
+> alignment geometry is exactly characterized (Beta law, prior-free minimax);
+> the initial operator erosion is exactly the hidden-layer BP speed share; a
+> closed-form spectral law turns that scalar burden into the finite-time gap and
+> explains the soft ramp; and an early operator-velocity estimator predicts the
+> finite-time FA/BP gap with no fit (corr 0.999).
+
+## The erosion ladder (organizing spine)
+
+All "burden" objects, as one ladder (note 24 is the through-line: *random
+feedback induces a distribution of residual-direction operator erosion `e(r)`;
+capacity controls that distribution; the finite-time gap is the product of the
+tangent operators*):
+
+| level | object | status | role |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 0 static geometry | `Q_l = cos^2(W^T,B) ~ Beta(1/2,(D-1)/2)` | exact | defines alignment |
+| 1 null model | `e ~ Beta(k/2,(P-k)/2)`, `E[e]=k/P` | exact, **overpredicts** | proves nonzero cost for any `k>0` |
+| 2 exact init | `e_0 = 1 - r^T S_FA r / r^T K_BP r`, `E_B[e_0]=hidden_share` | exact, validated | the real `t=0` burden; gives `rho=1-E_B[e_0]` |
+| 3 finite time | closed form `gap_T(rho,{lam_i})` (note 34); estimator `K_t` (notes 15-17) | closed form: shape; estimator: magnitude | the actual gap |
+
+## Three contributions
+
+Refined to three pillars: 1 & 2 are foundational (static capacity geometry),
+3 is an independent track (initialization optimality), and the rest of the
+results build on 1 to form the main gap pillar, ordered as a progression
+(exists & soft -> exact at init -> finite-time law -> validation).
+
+### Contribution 1 — Distributional capacity of random feedback (static geometry)
+
+*(old 1 + 2.)*
+
+- Exact static-alignment law `Q_l = cos^2(W_{l+1}^T, B_l) ~ Beta(1/2,(D_l-1)/2)`,
+  `E[Q]=1/D`, with log-volume capacity cost `C_l(q) = -log P(Q_l >= q)`.
+- Multilayer scaling: independent blocks => `C_all = sum_l C_l = Theta(L n^2)`,
+  raw feasible volume `exp[-Theta(L n^2)]`.
+- Role: defines and measures the feedback-alignment burden before training.
+- **Proven.** `scripts/static_alignment_beta.py`, `scripts/capacity_scaling.py`.
+
+### Contribution 2 — Prior-free minimax optimality of random feedback
+
+*(old 3, independent track.)*
+
+- Without a prior on forward weights or task, no initialization beats isotropic
+  random feedback: `sup_mu inf_a E[(a^T b)^2] = 1/D`, achieved by isotropic.
+- Role: self-contained -- the burden cannot be designed away at initialization.
+- **Proven.** `scripts/minimax_initialization.py`.
+
+### Contribution 3 — The FA/BP operator gap: always nonzero, soft, exactly anchored at init, quantified over training
+
+*(old 4 + 5 + 6, as a four-level progression on Contribution 1.)*
+
+- **(a) Existence & softness.** `rho = output_share < 1` => `gap > 0` at every
+  `depth >= 2` and every capacity margin; analytic in the spectrum => smooth,
+  **no redundancy-exhaustion threshold** (null model `E[e]=k/P`, `P(e=0)=0`).
+- **(b) Exact at t=0.** `E_B[e_0 | W,r] = hidden_share = 1 - ||g_out^BP||^2 /
+  sum_l ||g_l^BP||^2`; one-hidden-layer Gaussian feedback => full conditional
+  Gaussian. Supplies the scalar burden `rho = 1 - E_B[e_0]`.
+  **Proven + validated** (0.4378 vs 0.4403). `scripts/actual_fa_initial_operator_moments.py`.
+- **(c) Finite-time law.** closed-form soft-ramp gap
+  `gap_T = (1/2N) sum_i c_i^2 [(1-eta rho lam_i/N)^{2T} - (1-eta lam_i/N)^{2T}]`
+  (mechanism + shape, `log gap ~ const - c rho lam_min`; note 34) **plus** the
+  early operator-velocity estimator `K_hat_t = K_0 + t(K_s-K_0)/s`
+  (drift-corrected magnitude, corr 0.999). closed form = why soft; estimator = how much.
+  `scripts/closed_form_soft_ramp.py`, `scripts/compressed_operator_predictor.py`.
+- **(d) Empirical validation (no fit).** matrix-alignment Beta; e0 Gaussian;
+  soft ramp (smooth, nonzero at positive margin -> refutes phase transition);
+  estimator trajectory overlap.
+
+### Old numbering -> new
+
+```text
+old 1, old 2          -> C1
+old 3                 -> C2
+old 4                 -> C3(b)
+old 6 (closed form + estimator) -> C3(c)
+old 5                 -> C3(d)
+(new) existence & soft -> C3(a)
+```
+
+## Key numbers (the evidence)
+
+- init moment: `E_B[e_0]=0.4378 +/- 0.008` vs theory `hidden_share=0.4403`.
+- estimator: linear-velocity gap MAE `0.00189`, corr `0.99885` (256 traj);
+  stress grid corr `0.994-0.99989` across depth 1/2/3, width 32/64/96,
+  horizon 25/50/100 (notes 15-17). fixed `K(0)` is ~10x worse.
+- soft ramp (dense `T=30000`): gap `0.147 -> 0.00016` smooth across margin
+  `-190 -> +130`, **nonzero at positive margin, no kink** (note 22).
+- closed-form law (corrected, matched data/init -- note 37): no-fit
+  `corr(log pred, log measured)=0.933` (matched init) / `0.982` (5-init geo
+  mean); measured `log(gap)` linear in margin `R^2=0.993`;
+  `corr(lam_min_mean,-log gap)=0.987` (note 34+37; 0.977/0.963 retired).
+
+## Concise figure list (5 figures, one per contribution)
+
+1. static Beta histogram + QQ (sanity).
+2. soft ramp: gap vs margin, log-y, smooth, nonzero at positive margin
+   (refutes phase transition). `outputs/phase_transition_dense_T30000_352traj/`.
+3. init moment: `E_B[e_0]` vs `hidden_share`, no-fit scatter.
+   `outputs/actual_fa_initial_operator_moments/`.
+4. **estimator: predicted vs empirical finite-time gap, 256 traj + stress
+   grid, corr 0.999 (centerpiece).** `outputs/compressed_operator_s20_256traj_T50_width64_plots/`.
+5. **closed form vs measured ramp + ramp law.**
+   `outputs/closed_form_soft_ramp/closed_form_vs_measured_ramp.png`.
+
+## Proven vs estimated vs approximate
+
+- proven, no fit: contributions 1, 3; the `E[e]=k/P` null model; the init
+  moment `E_B[e_0]=hidden_share`.
+- closed-form gap law (note 34): proven under lazy (A1) + scalar-erosion (A2);
+  captures shape, not magnitude.
+- estimator: no fitted scalar, but **conditional on early operators `(K_0,K_s)`**
+  -- a predictive finite-time estimator, not an architecture-only theorem.
+
+## Open problem (the one real gap)
+
+Derive the drift / effective burden from architecture + initialization so the
+finite-time gap becomes architecture-only:
+
+- predict `rho` (hence `hidden_share`) from infinite-width NTK recursions;
+- predict the drift `K_s - K_0` (alignment gain) -- naive `dot_K_0` fails
+  (note 31), so use a bounded short-time alignment-gain path or a deep-linear /
+  two-layer order-parameter solution;
+- a per-mode spectral erosion `rho_i` refining the scalar A2.
+
+## Superseded / cleanup
+
+- `00_project_overview.md`, `03_paper_outline.md`: stale framing; retire
+  "phase transition", add the estimator + closed-form law.
+- notes 19-21 (transition-as-kink): refuted by the dense sweep (note 22).
+- hard-`k` as a *gap predictor*: it overpredicts (note 25); keep only as the
+  null model that motivates the operator object.
+- `scripts/actual_fa_initial_erosion_distribution.py` (e0 Gaussian, note 32):
+  the sampler reuses the analytic coefficient (partly circular) -- switch it to
+  the real FA backward (verified to reproduce the same numbers).
+- `scripts/alignment_recovery_dynamics.py` (rho(t) recovery probe): superseded
+  by the estimator + closed-form law; keep only as an optional `t=0` sanity or
+  remove.