From a6ec4288a2232988b130b2f00bb2565f81706966 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: YurenHao0426 Date: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:15:51 -0500 Subject: Recursive reasoning dynamics: analysis pipeline, paper drafts, toy models Failure=more-chaotic (task-general under validity labeling) reduces to convergence/completeness detection; mechanism (transient chaos vs multistability vs input-induced) under investigation. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md | 17 +++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 17 insertions(+) create mode 100644 analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md (limited to 'analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md') diff --git a/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md b/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d90e02 --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +# Early-window pairing — hrm26040_joint +- paired n=2048; final acc=0.5259; already-correct@step4=0.3447 +- of final-correct, fraction already correct@4: 0.6555 +- early-window lam1: final-correct med -0.1714, final-wrong med -0.1314 + +## Forecasting FINAL outcome from the first 4 ACT steps +- AUC(-lam1_early -> final correct) = 0.728 +- AUC(-drift@4 -> final correct) = 0.486 +- AUC(q_halt@4 -> final correct) = 0.908 +- reference: AUC(-lam1_full -> final correct) = 0.987 + +## Restricted to examples NOT yet correct at step 4 (the decision-relevant set) +- n=1342, of which eventually correct: 371 (0.276) +- AUC(-lam1_early -> eventually correct) = 0.448 +- AUC(-drift@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.312 +- AUC(q_halt@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.734 +- early lam1 med: eventually-correct -0.1225 vs never-correct -0.1314 \ No newline at end of file -- cgit v1.2.3