# Early-window pairing — hrm26040_joint
- paired n=2048; final acc=0.5259; already-correct@step4=0.3447
- of final-correct, fraction already correct@4: 0.6555
- early-window lam1: final-correct med -0.1714, final-wrong med -0.1314

## Forecasting FINAL outcome from the first 4 ACT steps
- AUC(-lam1_early -> final correct) = 0.728
- AUC(-drift@4    -> final correct) = 0.486
- AUC(q_halt@4    -> final correct) = 0.908
- reference: AUC(-lam1_full -> final correct) = 0.987

## Restricted to examples NOT yet correct at step 4 (the decision-relevant set)
- n=1342, of which eventually correct: 371 (0.276)
- AUC(-lam1_early -> eventually correct) = 0.448
- AUC(-drift@4    -> eventually correct) = 0.312
- AUC(q_halt@4    -> eventually correct) = 0.734
- early lam1 med: eventually-correct -0.1225 vs never-correct -0.1314