From 29808ed4f8d550eb0ddcbc300b33f2dc596721e3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: YurenHao0426 Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:30:32 -0500 Subject: results: close LMS upfront-calibration screen --- RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md | 20 ++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 20 insertions(+) (limited to 'RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md') diff --git a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md index 1d0b4d6..1d52ad6 100644 --- a/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md +++ b/RAIN_EP_RELEASED_PROFILE.md @@ -163,3 +163,23 @@ also compares against a costly tracker that receives a fresh exact local probe every ten updates. The next experiment freezes equal small upfront probe budgets and then removes further probes, testing whether state prediction improves accuracy when repeated recalibration is unavailable. + +## R5 equal upfront probe budgets + +R5 gave the intercept tracker and affine SDIL exactly the same first +2/4/8/16 neutral observations, then disabled all further probes. It used the +10,000/2,000 centered-EP development split for one epoch. Holdout accuracy was: + +| upfront probes | intercept tracker | affine SDIL | SDIL minus intercept | +|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 2 | 43.75% | 44.05% | +0.30 points | +| 4 | 41.30% | 38.10% | -3.20 points | +| 8 | 44.90% | 44.30% | -0.60 points | +| 16 | 45.45% | 44.00% | -1.45 points | + +The present normalized-LMS affine predictor does not turn a small matched +upfront calibration budget into a reliable downstream advantage. Three of +four budgets lose to retaining the last measured intercept. This closes +cadence/probe-budget tuning for the current predictor; further work must change +the local identification rule and then re-enter through a new development +screen rather than scaling this implementation. -- cgit v1.2.3