# Rain EP Released-Drift Profile

## Scope

This protocol asks whether a local affine predictor adds value beyond a local
intercept when hardware update bias changes with the adaptive parameter state.
It is a controlled neural-network transfer of a shape measured in released
physical traces. It is not a reproduction of the resistor hardware and is not
labeled as a real-hardware neural-network result.

The source is the committed analysis
`results/physical_bias/p0_state_dependence.json`, derived from Zenodo record
15692914, release v1.0.1. For each of four measured edges, the report supplies
an affine offset, local gate-voltage slope, and the gate range visited in the
retained drift traces. The transfer profile divides both the offset and the
slope times observed gate range by the RMS of the four offsets. This freezes
the following dimensionless values without a task-accuracy fit:

- offsets: `0.93562, 1.60206, -0.10014, 0.74026`;
- full-range state variations: `0.52595, 0.31317, 0.38320, -0.04782`.

Neural parameters are deterministically assigned these four profiles. Their
initial local update-offset RMS is set by `bias_ratio`; parameter displacement
in units of that tensor's initial parameter RMS maps through `tanh` to the
measured state-range coordinate. This mapping preserves the measured relative
state dependence but does not claim that resistor gate volts equal neural
weight units.

## Local observation contract

At a neutral probe, the teaching input to the local update circuit is disabled.
The corrector receives the resulting measured circuit output at its current
parameter state. It is not given an externally calibrated coefficient. An
intercept-only predictor and affine SDIL receive identical probes. All
parameters probe in parallel, so probe count is independent of parameter count;
each parameter stores its own predictor coefficients.

## R0 development screen

R0 begins only after `dillavou_c0` finishes. It uses the same 10,000/2,000
training-only split as development, batch size 128, one epoch, fixed bias ratio
1.0, and the released affine profile. Eight cells run:

1. clean positive EP;
2. raw released-profile bias;
3. intercept-only, one initial probe;
4. affine SDIL, one initial probe;
5. intercept-only, one initial probe then every 10 steps;
6. affine SDIL with the same probes;
7. intercept-only, one initial probe then every 50 steps;
8. affine SDIL with the same probes.

R0 is a mechanics/development screen. A useful result requires affine SDIL to
have lower held-out residual bias and higher task accuracy than the matched
intercept-only arm. Final evidence additionally requires multiple seeds, a
frozen probe cadence, measurement noise/quantization, and the strong-clamp
baseline.

R0 did not pass this gate. Clean positive EP reached 53.2% after one epoch and
the raw released-profile arm reached 40.0%. With only the initial probe,
intercept and affine predictors were exactly matched at 49.9%. At cadence 10,
affine SDIL reached 49.9% versus 44.8% for the intercept, but its final relative
residual was higher (`9.51e-4` versus `5.95e-4`). At cadence 50, affine SDIL
had a slightly lower residual (`7.42e-3` versus `7.55e-3`) but lower accuracy
(47.1% versus 48.4%). No cadence improved both mechanism and task performance,
so R0 is ambiguous negative development evidence and is not promoted. The
stable centered-EP backbone identified by C0 is required before further task
confirmation.

The paper-facing decision is based on downstream accuracy, not residual-bias
diagnostics. Reinterpreted on that basis, R0 supplies one positive cadence
(49.9% affine versus 44.8% intercept at cadence 10) and one negative cadence
(47.1% versus 48.4% at cadence 50). This cadence sensitivity and the single
unstable positive-EP run make R0 inconclusive rather than a mechanism gate.

## R1 centered-EP screen

R1 freezes cadence 10 from the only positive R0 downstream comparison and
moves to the stable centered estimator. On the same 10,000/2,000 development
split, one epoch compares centered clean, fixed raw/intercept/SDIL, released-
profile raw/intercept/SDIL, and a released-profile oracle. Downstream holdout
accuracy is the only selection endpoint. Residual diagnostics are retained
only to catch implementation errors.

R1 used 10,000 FashionMNIST training examples and a disjoint 2,000-example
holdout drawn from the official training set, one epoch, one fixed seed, and
the author's comparative ConvHopfieldEnergy32 network. Holdout accuracy was:

| hardware condition | correction | accuracy |
|---|---|---:|
| no hardware bias | none | 46.00% |
| constant per-parameter bias | none | 10.00% |
| constant per-parameter bias | intercept-only | 45.45% |
| constant per-parameter bias | affine SDIL | 45.45% |
| released state-dependent profile | none | 32.70% |
| released state-dependent profile | intercept-only, cadence 10 | 43.85% |
| released state-dependent profile | affine SDIL, cadence 10 | 42.35% |
| released state-dependent profile | exact oracle subtraction | 46.00% |

This is positive evidence that a local neutral measurement can rescue a
centered-EP learner from a damaging constant hardware offset: both local
correctors recover 45.45% from 10.00%, close to the 46.00% clean endpoint.
It is negative evidence for the stronger state-dependent claim at the frozen
R1 setting: affine SDIL is 1.50 percentage points below the matched local
intercept and 3.65 points below the oracle. The state-dependent result must
therefore be treated as unconfirmed until a paired multi-seed accuracy study
shows otherwise. No residual-bias diagnostic can override this endpoint.