{
  "calibration_precursor": {
    "checkpoints": [
      {
        "epoch": 1,
        "mse_to_target_power": 1.0000000242141691,
        "prediction_target_cosine": -5.120151685872971e-06,
        "target_power": 142.2609250246797
      },
      {
        "epoch": 20,
        "mse_to_target_power": 1.0000000055445346,
        "prediction_target_cosine": -9.188050003749003e-06,
        "target_power": 492.22621874637883
      },
      {
        "epoch": 40,
        "mse_to_target_power": 1.0000000207505706,
        "prediction_target_cosine": -1.6028913891638828e-05,
        "target_power": 3347.859035403952
      },
      {
        "epoch": 60,
        "mse_to_target_power": 0.9999999997640454,
        "prediction_target_cosine": 4.038185739212611e-05,
        "target_power": 12104.714606234214
      },
      {
        "epoch": 80,
        "mse_to_target_power": 0.9999999967773018,
        "prediction_target_cosine": 6.468792391264821e-05,
        "target_power": 364280.45838307025
      },
      {
        "epoch": 87,
        "mse_to_target_power": 1.0000000346545865,
        "prediction_target_cosine": 1.4983485078330897e-05,
        "target_power": 302564383414.18854
      }
    ],
    "max_abs_mse_to_target_power_minus_one": 6.963728138575931e-08,
    "max_abs_prediction_target_cosine_before_nonfinite": 8.508675264290486e-05,
    "target_power_growth_epoch1_to_80": 2560.650145638194,
    "target_power_growth_epoch1_to_87": 2126827049.3932126
  },
  "diagnosis": {
    "classification": "early_credit_limited_by_estimator_efficiency_and_feedback_capacity",
    "evidence": [
      "instantaneous prediction-target cosine remains effectively zero",
      "calibration MSE remains indistinguishable from stochastic target power",
      "target power grows by orders of magnitude before nonfiniteness",
      "matched frozen-forward unit targets later yield only 0.0011 early-layer alignment",
      "structured learning reaches 0.0072 versus a 0.0240 cross-validated family oracle",
      "unconstrained coefficients raise the same spatial basis oracle only to 0.0549",
      "direct A/G estimation leaves early alignment unchanged at 0.0071",
      "held-out gated 3x3 maps from exact child errors reach 0.9998"
    ],
    "interpretation_limit": "instantaneous target metrics alone do not prove zero conditional learning; structured v2 has low instantaneous cosine yet positive exact-gradient alignment",
    "next_design_constraint": "do not add the tested activation contexts or repeat the closed A/G rate grid; learn spatial hierarchical feedback without weight copying and audit against hierarchical FA/BurstCCN",
    "next_test_outcome": "representable-subspace perturbation improved alignment but failed; direct vectorizer-space estimation then improved only middle/late layers and also failed the frozen early-layer gate"
  },
  "frozen_outcome": {
    "confirmation_test_seeds_touched": false,
    "final_accuracy": 0.1,
    "final_finite": false,
    "first_nonfinite_epoch": 89,
    "last_finite_validation": {
      "accuracy": 0.2282,
      "epoch": 80,
      "finite": true,
      "loss": 1080.0792
    },
    "last_reported_validation": {
      "accuracy": 0.1,
      "epoch": 200,
      "finite": false,
      "loss": null
    }
  },
  "post_failure_hierarchical_refinement": {
    "direct_output_channel_gated": 0.031122580851844408,
    "downstream_activation_context": 0.032068526988258954,
    "hierarchical_1x1_gated": 0.50521034930192,
    "hierarchical_3x3_gated": 0.9997667354251036
  },
  "post_failure_representation_refinement": {
    "channel_gated_cv_oracle_early_third_alignment": 0.02396580002561188,
    "naive_local_context_cv_early_third_alignment": 0.022457713873793972,
    "per_example_spatial_oracle_early_third_alignment": 0.05494018487684554,
    "trained_structured_early_third_alignment": 0.007209055746595065
  },
  "post_failure_v2_refinement": {
    "structured_all_layer_alignment": 0.05273995646520665,
    "structured_early_third_alignment": 0.007209055746595065,
    "structured_gate_status": "failed",
    "unit_target_all_layer_alignment": 0.011664319529173602,
    "unit_target_early_third_alignment": 0.0011051012067279469
  },
  "post_failure_v3_refinement": {
    "matched_v2_all_layer_alignment": 0.052739956808325494,
    "matched_v2_early_third_alignment": 0.007209058462952574,
    "vectorizer_subspace_all_layer_alignment": 0.0625791079364717,
    "vectorizer_subspace_early_third_alignment": 0.007139206010227402,
    "vectorizer_subspace_gate_status": "failed"
  },
  "protocol": "oral_a_A3_failure_diagnosis_v3",
  "short_screen_contrast": {
    "accuracy": 0.4198,
    "early_third_alignment": 0.08889565182228883,
    "warmup_mse_to_target_power": 1.0000000128001325,
    "warmup_prediction_target_cosine": 0.00016553175127441687
  },
  "source_commits": {
    "full": "a1d060e6d96d4ab973d16cd75149dd61899c7c95",
    "short": "a1d060e6d96d4ab973d16cd75149dd61899c7c95"
  },
  "source_paths": {
    "full": "results/oral_a_dev/sdil_full_r20_s0.json",
    "gate": "results/oral_a_full_gate.json",
    "hierarchical_oracle": "results/oral_a_hierarchical_oracle.json",
    "representation": "results/oral_a_representation_diagnosis.json",
    "short": "results/oral_a_short/sdil_channel_gated_lr0.03.json",
    "v2_gate": "results/oral_a_v2_calibration_gate.json",
    "v3_gate": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration_gate.json"
  }
}