Close the backbone row: the prediction held

DINOv2-large, twice the depth of base and wider, leaves the shared count
at exactly 15 and moves the correlation by less than the segmentation
noise floor. Four vision-side interventions now raise the vision field's
own rank and leave the intersection alone.

The cheap tier of the register is exhausted. What remains is a corpus
chosen for naturally wide overlap, promoted to the central bet, and the
unbalanced formulation, promoted to the critical path since such a
corpus is unlikely to arrive in bijection.

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

8 files changed, 244 insertions, 21 deletions

diff --git a/CANDIDATE_REGISTER.md b/CANDIDATE_REGISTER.md
index eff860e..e4aa235 100644
--- a/CANDIDATE_REGISTER.md
+++ b/CANDIDATE_REGISTER.md
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Status is one of: **done** (measured, number recorded), **running**,
 **queued** (specified, not started), **open** (idea, not specified),
 **closed** (measured and eliminated).
 
-Current position: correlation 0.716, shared directions 15, against a
+Current position: correlation 0.731, shared directions 15, against a
 recovering synthetic reference at 0.928 and 26.
 
 ## A. Widen the shared spectrum
@@ -32,21 +32,24 @@ correlation.
 | Annotated boxes instead of segmentation (oracle) | low | closed: shared 15, buys one direction |
 | More scenes (256 to 1024) | low | closed: shared 23 to 19 at matched width |
 | Augmentation orbits, four views | medium | closed: no gain, ρ 0.6559 either way |
-| Larger vision backbone (DINOv2-large) | medium | running: predicted useless, see below |
-| Third-order moments in the set kernel | low | queued |
-| Corpora with naturally wide overlap | high | queued |
+| Larger vision backbone (DINOv2-large) | medium | closed: shared 15 either way, prediction held |
+| Third-order moments in the set kernel | low | closed: vision rank +7, shared +1 |
+| Structured phrase encoding: head and modifiers apart | low | done: ρ 0.716 to 0.725, shared unchanged |
+| Suppressing a caption factor (synthetic, controlled) | low | done: shared 20 to 15, recovery 96.4% to 5.6% |
+| Corpora with naturally wide overlap | high | queued -- now the central bet |
 | Intervention responses: occlude, re-encode, use the change | high | queued |
 | Corpus-trained text encoder instead of PPMI vectors | medium | queued |
-| Structured phrase encoding: head and modifiers apart | low | queued |
 | Nonlinear content projection (kernel discriminant) | low | closed: 0.62 against 0.69 linear |
 
-The backbone row is a live prediction test rather than a hope. The shared count
-does not move when segmentation is replaced by ground-truth boxes, when
-segments are nearly tripled, or when the vision field's own effective rank
-doubles, so a larger backbone is predicted to leave it unchanged. The run is
-finishing anyway because the project's rule is to measure the bound rather than
-infer it, and a cheap refutation of my own prediction is worth more than the
-GPU time.
+The backbone row was a pre-registered prediction and it held: DINOv2-large,
+twice the depth of base, leaves the shared count at exactly 15 and moves the
+correlation less than the segmentation noise floor. Together with segments,
+oracle boxes and third-order moments, that is four vision-side interventions
+that raise the vision field's own rank and leave the intersection alone.
+
+Current position after today: correlation 0.731, shared 15. The gains came
+from the projection, the text vectors and the phrase encoding; nothing on the
+vision side moved either number.
 
 **Corpora with naturally wide overlap is the row today's result argues for and
 the one never attempted.** The synthetic world reaches 26 shared directions
@@ -142,11 +145,17 @@ the only home for selection-based ideas.
 
 ## Order of attempt
 
-Third-order moments first: it is the cheapest untried thing that raises field
-rank by construction, since a set kernel carrying third moments spans more
-directions than one carrying two. Then structured phrase encoding and the
-corpus-trained text encoder, because the text side is the one that moved the
-shared count at all. Then the two rows worth pre-committing to regardless of
-cost — intervention responses, and a corpus chosen for naturally wide overlap —
-the second of which is now the register's central bet rather than one candidate
-among many.
+The cheap tier is exhausted. Third-order moments, structured phrase encoding
+and the larger backbone were the last three untried low-cost rows and all
+three are now measured: the first two raise the correlation by 0.01 each and
+the third by nothing, and none of them moves the shared count. Five separate
+representational interventions have now left the intersection at 15 ± 1.
+
+What remains is not cheaper work but different work. **A corpus chosen for
+naturally wide overlap is the register's central bet**, promoted from one
+high-cost candidate among several, because the caption-suppression experiment
+showed corpus overlap to be what sets the width and no encoder-side change to
+touch it. Intervention responses stay pre-committed as the one signal that does
+not pass through the relation field at all. The unbalanced formulation in F is
+now on the critical path rather than a future tidy-up, since a corpus with wide
+overlap is unlikely to arrive in bijection.
diff --git a/RANK_RESULTS.md b/RANK_RESULTS.md
index 2998e47..adaee21 100644
--- a/RANK_RESULTS.md
+++ b/RANK_RESULTS.md
@@ -85,6 +85,15 @@ side, all measured at matched width:
 | 6 spectral segments | 0.692 | 15 |
 | 16 spectral segments | 0.679 | 14 |
 | annotated region boxes (oracle) | 0.703 | 15 |
+| DINOv2-base, 12 layers, 768-dim | 0.731 | 15 |
+| DINOv2-large, 24 layers, 1024-dim | 0.709 | 15 |
+
+The backbone row was a pre-registered prediction rather than a hope: the width
+had failed to respond to every other vision-side change, so a larger encoder
+was predicted to leave it alone. **Doubling the depth and widening the
+representation leaves the shared count at exactly 15** and moves the
+correlation by less than the segmentation noise floor, in the wrong direction.
+The prediction survives, and the row closes on a measurement.
 
 Handing the pipeline ground-truth boxes buys one direction over unsupervised
 segmentation and nothing over using fewer segments. This confirms from a new
diff --git a/artifacts/vg_5k/np_bb_base.json b/artifacts/vg_5k/np_bb_base.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d5e8d81
--- /dev/null
+++ b/artifacts/vg_5k/np_bb_base.json
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "protocol": "Continuous states, content projection fitted per modality on scenes outside the evaluated set. Hidden pairs are read only for the correlation.",
+  "samples": 256,
+  "views": 1,
+  "kept_directions": 64,
+  "weight_power": 0.5,
+  "moment_degree": 2,
+  "phrase_encoding": "structured",
+  "field_correlation_at_truth": 0.7309253746041529,
+  "recovery_threshold": 0.9
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/artifacts/vg_5k/np_bb_large.json b/artifacts/vg_5k/np_bb_large.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..371b6e6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/artifacts/vg_5k/np_bb_large.json
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "protocol": "Continuous states, content projection fitted per modality on scenes outside the evaluated set. Hidden pairs are read only for the correlation.",
+  "samples": 256,
+  "views": 1,
+  "kept_directions": 64,
+  "weight_power": 0.5,
+  "moment_degree": 2,
+  "phrase_encoding": "structured",
+  "field_correlation_at_truth": 0.7089623334444308,
+  "recovery_threshold": 0.9
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/artifacts/vg_5k/shared_rank_backbone.json b/artifacts/vg_5k/shared_rank_backbone.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..85f8270
--- /dev/null
+++ b/artifacts/vg_5k/shared_rank_backbone.json
@@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
+{
+  "protocol": "Effective rank from the participation ratio of each field's spectrum; shared directions from principal angles between the two leading eigenspaces. No pairing enters beyond the alignment the fields already carry.",
+  "width": 32,
+  "rows": [
+    {
+      "label": "dinov2-base",
+      "size": 256,
+      "correlation": 0.7309253746041529,
+      "visual_effective_rank": 39.354355315104065,
+      "text_effective_rank": 48.51028021023378,
+      "shared_directions_cos_gt_0.7": 16,
+      "shuffled_null": 1.0,
+      "shared_above_null": 15.0,
+      "principal_cosines_top8": [
+        0.989,
+        0.97,
+        0.961,
+        0.958,
+        0.935,
+        0.929,
+        0.919,
+        0.916
+      ],
+      "spectrum_profile": [
+        {
+          "index": 0,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.8752914618130935
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 1,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.7113889267529432
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 2,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.6474520213694175
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 3,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.4561670462980055
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 4,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.7889444327260163
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 5,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.4798210203235249
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 6,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.5388775689204454
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 7,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.38535987856698345
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 8,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.35775238981774193
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 9,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.40119867473784454
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 10,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.2947247041857286
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 11,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.35693618856678805
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 12,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.3374522541229742
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 13,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.24867975139657714
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 14,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.24833229549726515
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 15,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.3646745592021869
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "label": "dinov2-large",
+      "size": 256,
+      "correlation": 0.7089623334444308,
+      "visual_effective_rank": 34.09936031350298,
+      "text_effective_rank": 48.51028021023378,
+      "shared_directions_cos_gt_0.7": 16,
+      "shuffled_null": 1.0,
+      "shared_above_null": 15.0,
+      "principal_cosines_top8": [
+        0.991,
+        0.969,
+        0.961,
+        0.956,
+        0.935,
+        0.92,
+        0.912,
+        0.906
+      ],
+      "spectrum_profile": [
+        {
+          "index": 0,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.8501366463451905
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 1,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.702180071463519
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 2,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.7558696816944022
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 3,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.5885227667993027
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 4,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.686980306019425
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 5,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.4753734481010367
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 6,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.514674338549242
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 7,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.36351201198898186
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 8,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.6277398229978914
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 9,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.3043972557562218
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 10,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.38398700857650125
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 11,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.2633551172681774
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 12,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.37175039776017144
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 13,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.3640902133116658
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 14,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.23400241918530762
+        },
+        {
+          "index": 15,
+          "best_text_overlap": 0.30808914881072025
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "reading": "The narrow modality is the one to upgrade. A shared count far below both effective ranks means each side is rich but they are rich about different things."
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/logs/backbone_battery.log b/logs/backbone_battery.log
index e69de29..2fdae8d 100644
--- a/logs/backbone_battery.log
+++ b/logs/backbone_battery.log
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+ALLDONE
diff --git a/logs/obj_large_gpu.log b/logs/obj_large_gpu.log
index 8dfb4fe..c0bfddf 100644
--- a/logs/obj_large_gpu.log
+++ b/logs/obj_large_gpu.log
@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
 Using a slow image processor as `use_fast` is unset and a slow processor was saved with this model. `use_fast=True` will be the default behavior in v4.52, even if the model was saved with a slow processor. This will result in minor differences in outputs. You'll still be able to use a slow processor with `use_fast=False`.
 `torch_dtype` is deprecated! Use `dtype` instead!
-
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+{"nodes": 2000, "mean_segments": 6.0, "min_segments": 6}
+Wrote artifacts/vg_5k/nobj_large_gpu.pt
diff --git a/logs/rho_full_width.log b/logs/rho_full_width.log
index f0255ac..7a8a777 100644
--- a/logs/rho_full_width.log
+++ b/logs/rho_full_width.log
@@ -1 +1,2 @@
 noise=0.0   rho=0.928  shared= 21.0  recovery=0.961
+noise=0.2   rho=0.893  shared= 18.0  recovery=0.971