RESULT 39: seed verdict — ride_s1 lucky draw; RESULT 26 zero-gap anchored on BP's weakest seed, corrected to 'within ~0.02 of BP seed-mean'; EP-recipe seeds queued

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn

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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
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@@ -568,6 +568,22 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected
 
 
 
+### RESULT 39 (2026-07-17): SEED CAMPAIGN VERDICT — ride_s1 was a lucky draw, AND RESULT 26's "statistical zero-gap" was anchored on BP's weakest seed. CLAIM CORRECTED.
+| run | s1 | s2 | s3 | mean +- sd |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| stage1b_ride (EP governor) | 1.2016 | 1.2738 | 1.2592 | 1.2449 +- 0.038 |
+| stage1b_bp (twin) | 1.2311 | 1.2050 | 1.2063 | 1.2141 +- 0.015 |
+(protocol note: bp_s2/s3 ran --amp like all EP arms; bp_s1 was the original fp32 run.)
+1. ride's 1.2016 = the deepest dip of a HIGH-VARIANCE family (range 0.07) — the single best
+   number of all six runs, but by distribution BP leads (means 0.031 apart, ~2 sd).
+2. ERRATUM to RESULT 26/35 zero-gap phrasing: bp_s1 (1.2311) is the WEAKEST of BP's three
+   seeds. Against the BP 3-seed mean (1.2141): cent-full gap +0.019, plain3e3 +0.023 —
+   SMALL gap, not statistical zero. The honest C512 statement until EP-recipe seeds land:
+   "EP within ~0.02 of the BP seed-mean; family distributions overlap at the tails."
+3. NEEDED for the final number: EP-recipe seeds (cent/plain3e3 currently n=1) — queued after
+   the ridev2 probes on GPU0; deck S9's zero-gap line to be softened in the next revision.
+4. The BP-fairness lr mini-sweep remains queued behind that (RESULT 36 protocol).
+
 ### RESULT 38 (2026-07-17): 2D UPDATE-FIELD ANALYSIS (professor's suggestion) — the finite-beta field IS non-conservative, but only where training doesn't live; EP and BP reach DIFFERENT, equally deep basins.
 Method: fieldviz.py — full-model PCA plane over 27 snapshots of 5 runs (49% trajectory variance);
 13x13 grid; loss contours + three update fields (BP, EP@3e-4, EP@1e-2; 2-batch averaged;