RESULT 73: 治理条令(用户裁决) — 正向scaling claim暂停;三类严格分类(冻结配方曲线/事后oracle包络/迁移曲线);dg128=另一更新场+exploratory降格;机制识别协议(线性化电池+无量纲律+C1152盲测)预注册冻结

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn

1 files changed, 32 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
index 8d0ed5c..c29d476 100644
--- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
+++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
@@ -578,6 +578,38 @@ power law (dose ~ width^k -> soft wall, budget k for 270M) vs width THRESHOLD ne
 0.076 gap hides a small closable leak (lk512 arms answer directly). Chained behind fw135m_dg128
 on all three GPUs; ~12h of ladder after the validation completes.
 
+### RESULT 73 (2026-07-29): GOVERNING DOCTRINE (user ruling) — NO TRANSFERABLE SCALING
+KNOWLEDGE EXISTS YET; positive scaling claims SUSPENDED; results reclassified into three
+strict classes; next phase = mechanism identification with a pre-registered transfer law and
+a BLIND holdout. All prior "progress" on the C768 leak is symptom-and-intervention, not root
+cause: amp (demoted), head throttle (retracted), softmax saturation (refuted) — a chain of
+per-scale patches with no unifying mechanism = an invalid scaling experiment by definition.
+THE THREE CLASSES (every past and future number must declare its class):
+1. FROZEN-RECIPE CURVE (valid, negative): the fixed recipe fails C512->C768 (gap 0.047 ->
+   0.294); small-width frozen gaps already trend with width. This is the one established fact.
+2. POST-HOC ORACLE ENVELOPE (repairability only, ZERO extrapolation power): per-width tuned
+   results incl. every leak-battery arm and dgain dosing. dg128 at cos 0.25-0.28 is NOT the
+   original estimator made precise — it is a DIFFERENT update field; if it works it is a new
+   algorithm candidate and may not silently rejoin the original method's scaling curve.
+   fw135m_dg128 (running, left to complete per user) is EXPLORATORY regardless of outcome —
+   also a 250k-resume, so at best it proves rescue-ability of one state.
+3. TRANSFER CURVE (the only thing called scaling): a control law with no explicit size
+   dependence, fitted at small widths, hitting an UNSEEN width with ZERO tuning.
+THE LAW MUST SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPLAIN: top-half localization; the 4-6x C768/C512 leak-rate
+factor; leak ~ 1/beta; the x128 displacement requirement; immunity to bsign/centered/fp32/
+K8/head-LR; complete closure under BP substitution.
+PROTOCOL (frozen before any validation run): C256/C384/C512/C768 for mechanism ID only —
+per-layer normalized displacement RMS(d_l)/RMS(z_l), Jacobian/curvature at each nonlinearity
+family, true optimizer-step differences; LOCAL LINEARIZATION battery per nonlinearity class
+(softmax vs SwiGLU vs RMSNorm — substitute frozen local linearization in the read, see which
+substitution kills the leak = which family carries the width-growing term); fit the
+dimensionless law (e.g. gain from RMS(d)/RMS(z) x local curvature scale — never a hand-written
+per-width constant); C1152/270M = blind holdout, formula/thresholds/cost/error-tolerance
+frozen BEFORE launch, from-scratch, n>=2 seeds; any unpredicted phenomenon at the holdout =
+verdict "does not scale", no patch-and-reconnect.
+Project page reworded same day: 135M row states the frozen-recipe failure plainly; scaling
+section = negative result + protocol; "97% treatment" claim removed from the abstract.
+
 ### RESULT 72 (2026-07-29): THE CURVE GOES ALL THE WAY — dg128 closes 97% (tail within
 0.0015 of the all-BP bar); the physics leak is FULLY REDEEMABLE by displacement amplification.
 FULL-DOSE VALIDATION LAUNCHED.