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authorYuren Hao <yurenh2@illinois.edu>2026-07-28 11:28:36 -0500
committerYuren Hao <yurenh2@illinois.edu>2026-07-28 11:28:36 -0500
commit752e113d67e510c4152bb1f33301b1dc509322af (patch)
tree18cef5d8268086e673ba16c693742ccfeb54c69e /docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
parent77889401c95c75a591f69e51caf7617bc848f0cb (diff)
RESULT 65: 泄漏仪器首读+0.0685/6k(同态同LR,BP冷动量仍胜=保守低估;轨迹积累慢20×=前载+自愈); 筛选电池1三臂在飞(centered/K8/fp32)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn
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@@ -568,6 +568,18 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected
+### RESULT 65 (2026-07-28): THE LEAK INSTRUMENT WORKS — first reading +0.0685/6k at the
+SAME state (20x the trajectory-averaged rate: front-loaded/self-adapting), screening battery 1
+in flight. Paired 6k segments from fw135m_bsign_s250000: BP tail val_mean 3.4982 vs EP-plain
+3.5668. Caveats favoring conservatism: BP arm ran COLD momentum (weights-only resume) yet
+still outpaced by 0.0685 -> underestimate of BP's edge; the trajectory-integrated gap accrues
+20x slower (EP re-equilibrates along its own path — the leak is partially self-healing, which
+is WHY the run survives at all). As a SCREENING instrument: 1.5h/arm, single GPU, huge SNR.
+BATTERY 1 (all from s250000 warm, 6k, vs the two bars): leak_cent (centered — if the exact-
+symmetric read still leaks, the entire estimator-bias family is out); leak_k8 (deeper relax —
+cos said saturated, the leak may live below cos resolution); leak_f32 (amp share on the same
+instrument, cross-check of the ~12% window estimate).
+
### RESULT 64 (2026-07-28): NOT A PLATEAU — A CONSTANT-RATE RELATIVE LEAK, 4-5x wider at
C768; every named suspect cleared AT PROBE RESOLUTION; the leak-rate probe is the new instrument.
LEDGERS CLOSED: 72M BP n=3: 3.2884/3.2943/3.2820 -> mean 3.2882+-0.006. Honest 72M gap: