RESULT 64: 非plateau而是恒速泄漏(宽度×4-5,退火追不上); 全嫌疑至分辨率洗清(bias≤sem,msign无放大,σ两边同一/BP更响); 72M账本n=3合卷(BP 3.2882±0.006,bsign gap+0.076); 磁盘满事故+458GB修剪(清单落档); amp降级次要(~12%); 泄漏率配对探针在飞

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn

1 files changed, 22 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
index 1606dd2..a73f28b 100644
--- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
+++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md
@@ -568,6 +568,28 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected
 
 
 
+### RESULT 64 (2026-07-28): NOT A PLATEAU — A CONSTANT-RATE RELATIVE LEAK, 4-5x wider at
+C768; every named suspect cleared AT PROBE RESOLUTION; the leak-rate probe is the new instrument.
+LEDGERS CLOSED: 72M BP n=3: 3.2884/3.2943/3.2820 -> mean 3.2882+-0.006. Honest 72M gap:
+bsign(n=2) +0.076 (7.9% ppl); cent(n=1) +0.044. — fp32 A/B (both arms died at s275000
+torch.save: DISK FULL, 100%/10T shared NFS; pruned 458GB of intermediate ckpts, 652 files,
+manifest runs/PRUNE_MANIFEST_260728.txt, 39 landmarks kept): fp32@3e-3 window val_mean 3.5538
+vs amp 3.5891 vs fp32@1.5e-3 3.5843 -> amp DEMOTED to minor contributor (~12% of the deficit);
+R63's "amp is THE mechanism" corrected.
+SUSPECTS CLEARED (with resolution caveats): systematic bias at C768 <= sem (probe_bias nb=12:
+plain ~ sem everywhere; w2_b11 0.81% vs sem 0.51% = the one 1.6x flicker); Muon amplification
+NONE (msign cos 0.9987-0.9994 vs raw 0.9998-1.0000); sigma/scale runaway NONE (tok_rms
+IDENTICAL to 3 decimals; BP head LOUDER: sig1 744 vs EP 620 — the louder-states trajectory is
+normal training, not EP pathology).
+THE SHAPE (schedule-fraction matched): 72M gap hovers +0.04..0.09 and the anneal CLOSES it
+(0.087@80% -> 0.047@100%); 135M gap grows near-linearly +0.10/0.16/0.20/0.28/0.29 — a
+per-progress leak, 4-5x the 72M rate, that the anneal cannot outrun; "plateau" = leak rate
+catching BP's descent rate. Required per-step magnitude: ~1% CORRELATED discrepancy — exactly
+at/below every probe's floor. The 0.999-cos-yet-diverging paradox is the finding.
+IN FLIGHT: leak-rate paired probe — SAME weights (s250000), EP vs BP, 6k steps each, direct
+DCE readout; calibrates the leak instrument for recipe search (anything that cuts measured
+leak-rate is a candidate; full-run validation only after).
+
 ### RESULT 63 (2026-07-27): MECHANISM CLOSED — THE AMP CERTIFICATE BREAKS AT WIDTH AND THE
 C768 CORRIDOR INVERTS MID-RUN; every 135M EP failure mode falls into place.
 Chain of three probes (all GPU0, hours): (1) blockcos @s150000: fp32 EP gradient PERFECT