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authorYuren Hao <yurenh2@illinois.edu>2026-07-05 06:27:34 -0500
committerYuren Hao <yurenh2@illinois.edu>2026-07-05 06:27:34 -0500
commit1e5619cf4f3e45acc880f4eef0562e967f7fe39e (patch)
tree51406dbcd02ff85c1fcdde53682856e8f27ca851 /ep_run/fix_probe.log
parent5975caf0f52355276aabec5ba8f144db9ac46619 (diff)
estimator forensics closed: cos ceiling = adjoint TRUNCATION + SEMI-CONVERGENCE (not r, not anchor, not transients)
Refutation chain: r-sweep flat (0.02-0.4); deep anchor (res 100x tighter) no gain; kappa brake monotonically harmful. t2sel window sweep at s2000: 40->80 lifts ALL batches (mean 0.889->0.936, truncation confirmed); past 80 SEMI-CONVERGENT (batch-dependent optimum; the inc-argmin t_best rule fails on rotating slow modes -> batch2 degrades 0.956->0.875 at 320). Early stopping IS the regularizer; iteration count = reg parameter. Shipping insight: holofast + sdpa + t2sel80 ~= old default wall-clock with cos 0.89->0.94. warm_fast (record) already ran t2sel=80 vs proven-scratch 40 — a real +0.05-cos hidden difference in the lineage table. Next lever: trend-aware stopping / t_best-neighborhood averaging. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014FAPDWQ49M5Ye3NpTndTpn
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+(1) deep anchor: cos at matched T1
+/home/yurenh2/miniconda3/lib/python3.13/site-packages/torch/autograd/graph.py:865: UserWarning: Attempting to run cuBLAS, but there was no current CUDA context! Attempting to set the primary context... (Triggered internally at /pytorch/aten/src/ATen/cuda/CublasHandlePool.cpp:330.)
+ return Variable._execution_engine.run_backward( # Calls into the C++ engine to run the backward pass
+ T1=150 cos=0.9145 0.8368 mean=0.8757 (res~4.7e-03)
+ T1=400 cos=0.7801 0.8977 mean=0.8389 (res~3.9e-05)
+(2) kappa brake at T1=150:
+ kappa=0.0 cos=0.9145 0.8368 mean=0.8757
+ kappa=0.02 cos=0.9115 0.8365 mean=0.8740
+ kappa=0.05 cos=0.9114 0.8304 mean=0.8709
+ kappa=0.1 cos=0.9040 0.8238 mean=0.8639
+ kappa=0.2 cos=0.8876 0.8089 mean=0.8483
+FIX_PROBE_DONE