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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 55b6977..04bade5 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,28 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 59 (2026-07-24): FW135M COMPLETED 3.3839 — stability TRANSFERS (zero events, +440k, bsign), but the OPERATING POINT does not: beta=3e-3 grazed the C768 ceiling through the +endgame and the anneal harvest was lost. Scaling verdict DEFERRED pending the beta-fix replay. +Numbers: best 3.3839 @347.2k (79% of schedule; final 93k deep-anneal steps bought NOTHING; +val_mean flat 3.593->3.581 over the last 300k). Grazing signature, monotone by window: +cos 0.990->0.981->0.968, drift 0.0097->0.0173, gn 0.146->0.197, while sigma climbed to 661 +(72M endgame: 475, cos 0.995). Mechanism: wider model -> larger sigma -> ceiling ~1/sigma^2 +LOWER, and the 72M-calibrated beta=3e-3 met it. bsign held (zero d-skips, no storm, no +collapse) = the stability claim extends to 135M; but estimator quality degraded in the graze +and the last-fifth harvest vanished. Endpoint sits INSIDE the 72M seed band (bsign mean +3.364+-0.03) = a FLAT scaling step as measured, n=1, attribution impossible without the +135M BP twin (collaborator, now urgent). +LESSON (ladder doctrine): window constants do NOT transfer across width — every rung needs a +beta re-gate (rho-grid at that width), exactly as BASELINE_SPEC prescribed for depth events. +Candidate width rule: beta ~ 1/sigma_end^2 (C768 sigma_end/C512 ratio^2 = 1.94 -> beta ~1.5e-3). +IN FLIGHT: (a) probe_cx3_rhogrid on fw135m ckpts s150000/s345000/s435000, fine beta grid — +the direct ceiling measurement at C768 (physics certificate for the graze); (b) fw135m_end15: +resume s345000 (just before best), beta 1.5e-3, replay the final 95k (2-GPU, ~16h). Harvest +returns (best << 3.3839) -> diagnosis confirmed + better crown + the width-scaling beta rule +enters the recipe; no return -> C768 endgame is genuinely harder, escalate to estimator +(centered tail) or schedule work. + ### RESULT 58 (2026-07-22): BSIGN SEED-2 — STABILITY REPLICATED (n=2, zero events both runs); CE mean 3.3637 +- 0.029, s1 was the lucky draw (dip-statistics bite #4). fw72m_bsign_s2 DONE 3.3924: full 234k, d0/g0/r0 end to end under the res-alone gate — the |