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| -rw-r--r-- | docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 22 |
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index 268ab91..f4471d6 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,28 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 49 (2026-07-18): CYCLE-GAIN DECOMPOSITION — the explosion anatomized (user +directive). The loop is a ~23-stage product sitting near-critical by construction; plain heats +ONE stage (b8's sharp head h6, logit 94 vs cent 75) until a MARGINAL crossing; the catastrophe +was the governor's hard-bottom RESPONSE, which damaged b1 (vjp-entry gain 1.3 -> 14.9). +probe_cycle (mode-aligned per-stage gains, sweeps 15/16 diffs, beta=3e-3): + structure (BOTH lineages): down-chain vjp product ~50-72x, up-chain rebuild ~13-15k x, + top read gH ~1e-6 (beta*NBT*H_top) -> round-trip O(1). Biggest single amplifier = b8: + 2.9 (vjp) x 3.8 (fwd) ~ 11x round-trip; b7 next. Same map as R44/R47. + plain vs cent @195k: same structure ~1.2-1.4x hotter, concentrated at the b8 stage + (2.92 vs 2.50) and its carrier head b8-h6 (share 0.21, max|logit| 94 vs cent 75, ent 0.4); + healthy runs CARRY 50-57-logit heads fine (cent b10-h7=57, b11-h0=51) -> threshold ~80+. + plain @210k (sick): gV entry-stage 0<-1 EXPLODED 1.31 -> 14.91 (b1 sigma(J) 16->34->44 in + statej) = the noise-walk DAMAGE, not the original cause. Pre-collapse growth was modest + (res0 +55% over 40k steps); G's 300x conflates marginal crossing with post-crossing damage. +BP-batch-noise control: per-batch BP u1 vs mean-BP u1 overlap 0.388/0.446 == EP arms' 0.37-0.41 +-> the "shared noise" is minibatch sampling, identical for BP; Q1 sealed. +FIX ARM ARMED: --logit_knee 80 (piecewise: identity below 80, slope 0.2 above; healthy heads +untouched incl cent's own carriers; cuts the runaway head's switching Jacobian 5x). +fw72m_plain_knee = exact plain_nf replay + knee, queued behind c190 (smoke then DDP launch). +Also on the menu (user decision): est_auto = centered-on-demand only when rho_ema near cap +(pays 1.39x on ~10-20% of steps, avg ~1.05x) — mechanism-blind but c190-proven lever. + ### RESULT 48c (2026-07-18): WHY the digital floor can't be BBP — the THETA-READ HAS NO 1/beta CHANNEL, structurally. The BBP transition lives exactly where readout is DIFFERENTIAL (analog). probe_bbp3 (6-bit STOCHASTIC rounding, fresh draw per estimate; frozen = one draw for free+ |