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| -rw-r--r-- | docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 23 |
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index d467cb0..1606dd2 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,29 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 63 (2026-07-27): MECHANISM CLOSED — THE AMP CERTIFICATE BREAKS AT WIDTH AND THE +C768 CORRIDOR INVERTS MID-RUN; every 135M EP failure mode falls into place. +Chain of three probes (all GPU0, hours): (1) blockcos @s150000: fp32 EP gradient PERFECT +(cos 0.9999-1.0000, every block, both channels) -> per-step fidelity exonerated at healthy +states. (2) K-sweep @s250000/s435000: K=3 == K=8 at 0.999 -> K-sufficiency transfers; K +exonerated. (3) amp_gate rerun on C768 ckpts — THE SMOKING GUN: amp cos @1e-3 = 0.9079 (C512: +0.9682 == fp32), @3e-3 ~0.95 (C512: 0.9878), @1e-2 0.9761 (C512: 0.9966). The bf16 state-noise +is fixed-relative, the nudge displacement ~beta, the states are LOUDER at C768 (sigma 661 vs +475) -> the amp read-noise floor RISES with width. The BBP "no digital detectability floor" +result was fp32-ONLY; under amp there is a real, width-scaling floor. +THE INVERSION: amp floor wants beta >~3e-3 for clean reads; the fp32 ceiling sinks to ~1e-3 +late -> from mid-run onward NO legal beta exists under amp at C768. All three EP arms explained: +3e-3 = over-ceiling; 1.5e-3/7.5e-4 = under the amp floor (b15's unknown limiter FOUND — its +in-corridor-but-noise-rotten reads). The 0.294 gap = 200k+ steps of systematically degraded +reads, not any single blowup. +RECIPE CONSEQUENCES for width: (a) fp32 relax (tax->0, cost 1.5x) — the safe fix, A/B pending; +(b) bf16 sweeps + fp32 polish sweeps (~1.2x) — needs a probe variant (naive amp_last is WORSE: +one fp32 rebuild on bf16-settled states reads the bf16 offset as displacement); (c) large-beta +escape is CLOSED by the sinking ceiling. The 1.5x amp lever that funded the cost model at 1-3B +is width-broken — COST_MODEL must be re-quoted (fp32 or polish-mix rates) before any external +number is repeated. NEXT: 72m_bp_s3 clean (GPU0, closes 72M n=3); amp-vs-fp32 C768 A/B replay +from s250000 when GPUs free. + ### RESULT 62 (2026-07-27): THE C768 ANCHOR — BP 3.0902; the EP gap EXPLODES 6x at the first ladder rung (0.047 -> 0.294, ~34% ppl). Width problem is 100% EP-specific; recipe/data/ shape exonerated (BP gains the full expected -0.198 from 72M). |