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| -rw-r--r-- | docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md | 15 |
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diff --git a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md index bef54a0..a8ab69d 100644 --- a/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md +++ b/docs/campaign/CASCADE_ABLATION_PLAN.md @@ -568,6 +568,21 @@ direction), not training-under-fault; wave-2 = co-training with faults injected +### RESULT 41 (2026-07-18): CROWN-3 SEALED — fw72m_plain 3.3728 (gap 0.084 at 1.0x cost); a 0.041 plain-vs-cent discrepancy opens the ENDGAME question. +fw72m_plain (from scratch, plain estimator, fixed bf_late 3e-3@20k, bcap defensive): 234k steps, +best 3.3728, zero guard events. Ledger: BP twin 3.2884 | cent 3.3318 (gap 0.043) | plain 3.3728 +(gap 0.084) | original blown 3.7117. +- Still 5x better than the blown-schedule number at 1.0x estimator cost; but 0.041 WORSE than + cent — which contradicts the mid-tail A/B (plain==cent at s175-185k, RESULT 33). +- Two candidate explanations: (a) 72M single-seed trajectory noise (no seed distributions at + this scale); (b) centered has a REAL edge specifically in the cosine ENDGAME (cent's best came + at 203.7k; the A/B never tested that segment; bias/beta ratio grows as LR->0?). +- ADJUDICATOR LAUNCHED: endgame A/B from cent-lineage s200000 -> 215000 (15k steps through the + LR endgame), cent+mirror vs plain, GPU1/3 parallel. If cent wins there: est_late flips its + meaning — plain early, CENTERED endgame (the exact opposite of the original est_late design); + recipe = plain bulk + centered finish at ~1.05x cost. If equal: (a) seed noise, cent's full-run + edge unexplained, more seeds needed at 72M. + ### RESULT 40 (2026-07-17): RIDE-V2 PROBE VERDICT — the floor-jump bug WAS the whole disease; sync-accept adopted as default insurance. 4 arms, 72M mid-stage (cent s50000 -> 60000, 10k steps): fix 3.5715 | rv2a 3.5688 (beta->1.24e-2, 0 skips) | rv2ad 3.5688 | rv2as 3.5674 (beta 1.06e-2, 0 skips). |