results: record frozen C1 near-miss

2 files changed, 47 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/RESULTS.md b/RESULTS.md
index 382fc2d..8e1e664 100644
--- a/RESULTS.md
+++ b/RESULTS.md
@@ -120,6 +120,44 @@ result therefore depends on subtracting the soma-predictable component, not mere
 normalizing an oversized update. This is the most direct evidence that the Harnett-specific
 innovation operation is algorithmically necessary.
 
+## Frozen endogenous mixed-traffic confirmation (MNIST, d3/w256, 15 epochs)
+
+The 95-run C1 panel crossed five paired model seeds, soma and endogenous top-down traffic, two
+independently generated projections per traffic family, four signal controls, and a no-traffic
+panel. All runs came from clean revision `18c9c1c`. Test accuracy was evaluated once after
+training; alignment and traffic diagnostics used a fixed 512-example training prefix. No
+intermediate held-out metric or diagnostic entered the trajectories.
+
+| traffic | rho | projection seed | signal | test acc (%) | cos(r,-g) | traffic R2 |
+|:--------|----:|----------------:|:-------|-------------:|----------:|-----------:|
+| none | 0.0 | 1234 | raw | 97.474 ± 0.122 | +0.443 | — |
+| none | 0.0 | 1234 | norm-matched raw | 97.474 ± 0.122 | +0.443 | — |
+| none | 0.0 | 1234 | innovation | 97.474 ± 0.122 | +0.443 | — |
+| soma | 0.5 | 1234 | raw | 93.546 ± 0.508 | +0.037 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 1234 | norm-matched raw | 94.614 ± 0.586 | -0.025 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 1234 | innovation | 97.474 ± 0.091 | +0.268 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 1234 | task-period predictor | 97.462 ± 0.161 | +0.074 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 5678 | raw | 93.026 ± 2.046 | +0.025 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 5678 | norm-matched raw | 94.210 ± 0.294 | +0.000 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 5678 | innovation | 97.390 ± 0.137 | +0.267 | 1.000 |
+| soma | 0.5 | 5678 | task-period predictor | 97.450 ± 0.050 | +0.067 | 1.000 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 1234 | raw | 79.674 ± 9.332 | +0.077 | 1.000 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 1234 | norm-matched raw | 93.258 ± 1.029 | -0.063 | 1.000 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 1234 | innovation | 94.778 ± 0.329 | +0.205 | 0.947 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 1234 | task-period predictor | 94.052 ± 0.220 | +0.105 | 0.905 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 5678 | raw | 76.828 ± 16.956 | +0.121 | 1.000 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 5678 | norm-matched raw | 91.240 ± 2.770 | -0.067 | 1.000 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 5678 | innovation | 94.196 ± 1.106 | +0.217 | 0.963 |
+| top-down | 0.2 | 5678 | task-period predictor | 93.984 ± 0.578 | +0.126 | 0.922 |
+
+The innovation-minus-matched gains were `+2.860` and `+3.180` points for the soma projections,
+and `+1.520` and `+2.956` points for the top-down projections. Thus three of four realizations
+passed all frozen per-realization criteria. The top-down seed-1234 realization passed traffic R2
+(`0.947`) and alignment (`+0.205`) but missed the accuracy threshold. No-traffic innovation was
+identical to both controls. **The full C1 confirmation gate fails** because it required every
+realization to gain at least two points. This is a near miss with a precise failure mode, not a
+passed result; the projection and all five finite trajectories remain in the record.
+
 ## Legacy accuracy (pre-audit implementation)
 | task                         | BP        | DFA   | SDIL          |
 |------------------------------|-----------|-------|---------------|
diff --git a/ROADMAP.md b/ROADMAP.md
index f8ad2fe..5864064 100644
--- a/ROADMAP.md
+++ b/ROADMAP.md
@@ -18,6 +18,15 @@ than triggering selective seed removal or post-hoc protocol changes.
 
 ### C1. Innovation is necessary under naturally mixed apical traffic
 
+**Status: failed the frozen MNIST confirmation on 2026-07-22.** Three of four traffic
+realizations passed, but top-down projection seed 1234 produced a `+1.520`-point innovation gain
+over norm-matched raw feedback, below the predeclared `+2`-point threshold. The other top-down
+projection gained `+2.956` points and the two soma-traffic projections gained `+2.860` and
+`+3.180` points. All four passed the traffic-R2 and alignment requirements, and the no-traffic
+control had exactly zero mean change. The failed result is retained; it cannot be repaired by
+changing the MNIST threshold or excluding the projection. A new dataset may receive a separately
+frozen validation-only selection followed by an untouched test confirmation.
+
 The apical compartment must contain ordinary non-teaching traffic generated by the model or task,
 not only an additive nuisance chosen to match the predictor. Candidate traffic includes
 back-propagating somatic activity, top-down contextual state, and task-irrelevant feedback shared