results: close Oral-A v2 causal-capture gate

1 files changed, 22 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/ORAL_A_V2.md b/ORAL_A_V2.md
index d4586f6..f77c5d2 100644
--- a/ORAL_A_V2.md
+++ b/ORAL_A_V2.md
@@ -103,3 +103,25 @@ mechanics and causal capture rather than standard-scale task success.  A V2-2
 pass can move the score from 5 only after its full audit is committed.  A V2-3
 multi-depth, multi-seed pass is required for an oral-level scaling claim.
 
+## Audited outcome (2026-07-22)
+
+All six V2-1 records were finite and shared clean source commit `fc8fe99`.
+The frozen selector chose `eta_A=0.01` for both estimators.  Structured
+calibration improved exact teaching/negative-gradient alignment:
+
+| estimator | early-third alignment | all-layer alignment |
+|:--|--:|--:|
+| unit targets | 0.001105 | 0.011664 |
+| channel subspace | 0.007209 | 0.052740 |
+
+This is a real 6.5x early-layer and 4.5x all-layer improvement at identical
+causal-query count, but it fails two frozen advancement checks: early-third
+alignment is below `0.01`, and its absolute gain over unit targets is `0.006104`
+rather than `0.01`.  The all-layer check passes because the late blocks reach
+substantially higher alignment; the earliest blocks remain the bottleneck.
+The recorded target powers (`306.807` for the full hidden field and `0.270893`
+for channel-basis moments) are intentionally not divided or compared: the two
+estimators report different metric spaces.
+
+V2-1 status is **failed**.  V2-2 was not launched, no test endpoint or
+confirmation seed was touched, and the strict reviewer score remains 5/10.