protocol: freeze oral B recovery confirmation

1 files changed, 58 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/ORAL_B_RECOVERY.md b/ORAL_B_RECOVERY.md
index 7ab6785..da018dd 100644
--- a/ORAL_B_RECOVERY.md
+++ b/ORAL_B_RECOVERY.md
@@ -118,3 +118,61 @@ necessity, innovation identification, and a causal plasticity lesion.
 The executable runner, complete-grid analyzer, and shell entry point are
 `experiments/bci_td_run.py`, `experiments/analyze_bci_td_development.py`, and
 `experiments/bci_td_development_screen.sh`. None may run before D4 closes.
+
+## R2 frozen untouched confirmation
+
+R2 is committed before any R1 task endpoint and is executable only if the
+complete R1 gate selects one eligible rate. It runs that rate without further
+selection over untouched task seeds 10--15 and model seeds 0--4: exactly 30
+paired records, with no deletion or replacement. Each record repeats intact,
+fixed-vectorizer, plasticity-lesion, and exact-role diagnostic conditions on
+identical trajectories. Its separate 256-episode evaluation uses task seed
+`300000 + training_task_seed`. The R2 runner requires clean tracked code,
+protocol, D4 gate, and R1 gate and binds all of them by SHA-256.
+
+The task seed, rather than each of the five models sharing its environment, is
+the independent unit for uncertainty. Every aggregate confidence check first
+averages model seeds within each of the six task seeds and then uses a
+one-sided 95% Student-t bound with five degrees of freedom. R2 requires all of
+the following learning/plasticity checks:
+
+- mean intact final success at least 70%, every task mean at least 60%, and
+  the lower confidence bound at least 60%;
+- mean early-to-late learning gain at least 10 points and its lower bound at
+  least 5 points;
+- mean paired final gap over fixed vectorizer at least 20 points and its lower
+  bound at least 10 points;
+- mean deficit to the exact-role diagnostic at most 10 points and its upper
+  bound at most 20 points;
+- the lower bound of `0.5 * intact_gain - plasticity_lesion_gain` is
+  nonnegative; and
+- mean learned-role cosine at least 0.80 and every one of 30 cosines at least
+  0.70.
+
+The biological checks retain the thresholds frozen for the original B1/B2
+programme and add only task-cluster robustness bounds:
+
+- mean absolute innovation-soma correlation at most 0.10 (upper bound 0.12),
+  with mean raw-minus-innovation correlation at least 0.20 (lower bound 0.15);
+- preceding surrounding-network state predicts amplification at mean balanced
+  accuracy at least 55% (lower bound 52%), while decoder distance has mean
+  residual correlation at least 0.10 (lower bound 0.02);
+- residual population outcome accuracy averages at least 57% (lower bound
+  53%) and exceeds soma by at least 3 points on average with nonnegative lower
+  bound;
+- causal-role sign inversion is positive in at least 25/30 records and in all
+  six task-cluster means;
+- performance velocity has at least 0.05 mean absolute CV-correlation
+  advantage over instantaneous error, with nonnegative lower bound; and
+- early residual predicts late-minus-early somatic activity with mean
+  correlation at least 0.30 and lower bound at least 0.10.
+
+The executable runner, immutable complete-grid analyzer, and entry point are
+`experiments/bci_td_confirmation.py`,
+`experiments/analyze_bci_td_confirmation.py`, and
+`experiments/bci_td_confirmation.sh`. The analyzer accepts exactly the 30
+named records. A complete pass raises the strict reviewer score from 7 to 8
+and establishes oral-B **innovation-guided plasticity**. Because `kappa=0`, it
+explicitly does not revive the failed online-control or desired-velocity
+claim. Any failed R2 gate is retained, leaves the score at 7, and closes this
+recovery without threshold repair.