results: close Oral-A v2 causal-capture gate

1 files changed, 9 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/ROADMAP.md b/ROADMAP.md
index 3203e04..75e606a 100644
--- a/ROADMAP.md
+++ b/ROADMAP.md
@@ -355,6 +355,15 @@ development branch must therefore reduce causal-estimator variance in the
 representable channel-gated subspace; changing only the v1 threshold is not an
 allowed response.
 
+**Post-failure v2 status: causal-capture gate failed.** The structured
+representable-subspace estimator raised matched frozen-forward early/all-layer alignment from
+`0.001105/0.011664` to `0.007209/0.052740`. It passed the all-layer threshold
+but missed both the preregistered `0.01` early-layer threshold and the `0.01`
+absolute early-layer advantage. Per `ORAL_A_V2.md`, the full 200-epoch v2 run
+was not launched; test and confirmation seeds remain untouched. This localizes
+the remaining bottleneck to early-layer credit rather than merely spatial
+projection variance.
+
 Prepare convolutional local-update primitives and ResNet-20/32/56 protocols early. Queue frozen
 runs opportunistically on authorized idle GPUs. Because BurstCCN already reports CIFAR-10 and
 ImageNet scaling, dataset scale alone is not novel. The oral-level target is a memorable joint