results: close failed C2 local panel

1 files changed, 9 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/ROADMAP.md b/ROADMAP.md
index 8b73deb..702030a 100644
--- a/ROADMAP.md
+++ b/ROADMAP.md
@@ -116,6 +116,15 @@ may run only if the original C2 gate holds on validation and the d4 SDIL lesion
 2 points on average with at least 10 of 15 paired runs harmed. Test confirmation retrains on the
 same 8,000-example training subset and evaluates each task seed's untouched 5,000 examples once.
 
+**Local-rule validation status: failed on 2026-07-22; test remains unevaluated.** Across the 15
+task/model pairs, BP gained `+29.697` points from d1 to d4 while SDIL gained only `+6.240`
+(`21.0%` recovery). FA and DFA recovered `62.5%` and `59.5%`; SDIL's d4 endpoint was `5.560`
+points below the stronger comparator. The SDIL lesion criterion itself passed (`+12.787`-point
+mean drop; 11/15 harmed), so the failure is credit/optimization rather than unused depth. The
+fixed linear output-error vectorizer `A_l c` is now the leading limitation: increasing perturbation
+directions/frequency or simple gain normalization did not stabilize scratch validation. No C2
+test panel may run unless a separately declared mechanism change passes validation.
+
 ### C3. Causal calibration is genuinely amortized
 
 **Status: passed on 2026-07-22.** The frozen five-seed confirmation retained 112.9% of the K16/e4