results: close Rain parameter-bias screen

1 files changed, 98 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/experiments/analyze_rain_ep_s0.py b/experiments/analyze_rain_ep_s0.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b5534c3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/experiments/analyze_rain_ep_s0.py
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Summarize the closed Rain parameter-measurement development screen."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import math
+from pathlib import Path
+
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+RESULT_ROOT = ROOT / "results" / "ep_bias" / "s0"
+FILES = {
+    "clean": "clean-e10-n10k-s1988.json",
+    "raw": "raw-e10-n10k-r0p1-s1988.json",
+    "same_rms_noise": "noise-e10-n10k-r0p1-s1988.json",
+    "oracle": "oracle-e10-n10k-r0p1-s1988.json",
+    "innovation_online": "innovation-e10-n10k-r0p1-p0p5-s1988.json",
+    "innovation_cal64_online": "innovation-cal64-e10-n10k-r0p1-p0p5-s1988.json",
+    "innovation_cal1000_frozen": (
+        "innovation-cal1000-frozen-e1-n10k-r0p1-p0p5-s1988.json"),
+    "constant_cal1000_frozen": (
+        "constant-cal1000-frozen-e1-n10k-r0p1-p0p5-s1988.json"),
+}
+
+
+def read(name: str) -> dict:
+    with (RESULT_ROOT / FILES[name]).open(encoding="utf-8") as handle:
+        return json.load(handle)
+
+
+def finite_metric(metric: dict) -> bool:
+    values = (
+        metric.get("train_cost"), metric.get("test_cost"),
+        metric.get("train_accuracy"), metric.get("test_accuracy"),
+    )
+    return all(value is not None and math.isfinite(float(value)) for value in values)
+
+
+def json_safe(value):
+    if isinstance(value, float) and not math.isfinite(value):
+        return None
+    if isinstance(value, dict):
+        return {key: json_safe(item) for key, item in value.items()}
+    if isinstance(value, list):
+        return [json_safe(item) for item in value]
+    return value
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    records = {name: read(name) for name in FILES}
+    rows = {}
+    for name, record in records.items():
+        metrics = record["metrics"]
+        rows[name] = {
+            "epochs_completed": len(metrics),
+            "all_metrics_finite": all(finite_metric(metric) for metric in metrics),
+            "final_test_accuracy": metrics[-1]["test_accuracy"],
+            "best_test_accuracy": max(metric["test_accuracy"] for metric in metrics),
+            "final_corrector": json_safe(metrics[-1].get("corrector", {})),
+            "protocol": record["protocol"],
+        }
+    report = {
+        "stage": "rain_ep_parameter_measurement_s0",
+        "status": "closed_negative_adapter_with_positive_bias_noise_control",
+        "rows": rows,
+        "observations": {
+            "raw_structured_bias_nonfinite": not rows["raw"]["all_metrics_finite"],
+            "same_rms_noise_remains_finite": rows["same_rms_noise"]["all_metrics_finite"],
+            "clean_final_test_accuracy": rows["clean"]["final_test_accuracy"],
+            "same_rms_noise_final_test_accuracy": rows[
+                "same_rms_noise"]["final_test_accuracy"],
+            "innovation_online_final_test_accuracy": rows[
+                "innovation_online"]["final_test_accuracy"],
+            "innovation_cal64_online_final_test_accuracy": rows[
+                "innovation_cal64_online"]["final_test_accuracy"],
+            "innovation_cal1000_frozen_first_epoch_test_accuracy": rows[
+                "innovation_cal1000_frozen"]["final_test_accuracy"],
+            "constant_cal1000_frozen_first_epoch_test_accuracy": rows[
+                "constant_cal1000_frozen"]["final_test_accuracy"],
+        },
+        "interpretation": (
+            "At bias ratio 0.1, fixed structured parameter-measurement bias "
+            "makes the raw run nonfinite while same-RMS zero-mean noise remains "
+            "trainable. The parameter-level affine predictor does not recover "
+            "clean learning under online, 64-batch warm-up, or matched 1000-batch "
+            "frozen calibration, so this adapter is closed rather than promoted."
+        ),
+        "test_policy": "development_test_subset_observed_each_epoch",
+    }
+    output = RESULT_ROOT.parent / "s0_summary.json"
+    output.write_text(
+        json.dumps(report, indent=2, sort_keys=True, allow_nan=False) + "\n")
+    print(json.dumps(report, indent=2, sort_keys=True, allow_nan=False))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()