results: retain failed oral B confirmation gate

1 files changed, 284 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/results/bci_td_confirmation_gate.json b/results/bci_td_confirmation_gate.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..022f04a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/bci_td_confirmation_gate.json
@@ -0,0 +1,284 @@
+{
+  "checks": {
+    "all_records_finite_paired_and_cost_audited": true,
+    "innovation_identification_and_network_prediction": {
+      "decoder_distance_corr_lower_bound_at_least_0p02": true,
+      "mean_decoder_distance_corr_at_least_0p10": true,
+      "mean_raw_residual_corr_gap_at_least_0p20": true,
+      "mean_residual_soma_corr_at_most_0p10": true,
+      "mean_surrounding_event_accuracy_at_least_0p55": false,
+      "raw_residual_corr_gap_lower_bound_at_least_0p15": true,
+      "residual_soma_corr_upper_bound_at_most_0p12": true,
+      "surrounding_event_accuracy_lower_bound_at_least_0p52": true
+    },
+    "learning_and_plasticity": {
+      "every_role_cosine_at_least_0p70": true,
+      "every_task_mean_final_at_least_0p60": true,
+      "fixed_gap_lower_bound_at_least_0p10": true,
+      "intact_final_lower_bound_at_least_0p60": true,
+      "learning_gain_lower_bound_at_least_0p05": true,
+      "mean_fixed_gap_at_least_0p20": true,
+      "mean_intact_final_at_least_0p70": true,
+      "mean_learning_gain_at_least_0p10": true,
+      "mean_oracle_deficit_at_most_0p10": true,
+      "mean_role_cosine_at_least_0p80": true,
+      "oracle_deficit_upper_bound_at_most_0p20": true,
+      "plasticity_lesion_half_margin_lower_bound_nonnegative": true
+    },
+    "outcome_and_causal_role_vectorization": {
+      "longitudinal_prediction_lower_bound_at_least_0p10": false,
+      "mean_longitudinal_prediction_at_least_0p30": false,
+      "mean_residual_outcome_accuracy_at_least_0p57": false,
+      "mean_residual_soma_outcome_gap_at_least_0p03": false,
+      "mean_velocity_advantage_at_least_0p05": true,
+      "positive_sign_inversion_in_at_least_25_of_30": true,
+      "positive_sign_inversion_in_every_task_cluster": true,
+      "residual_outcome_accuracy_lower_bound_at_least_0p53": false,
+      "residual_soma_outcome_gap_lower_bound_nonnegative": false,
+      "velocity_advantage_lower_bound_nonnegative": true
+    }
+  },
+  "complete_grid": true,
+  "d4_gate_sha256": "636c587e47287338cdca7d9558dc3bfb99a2cec615badb23337025d85b8128ef",
+  "metrics": {
+    "decoder_distance_corr": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.15948127879484383,
+        0.1491990381903762,
+        0.15895141738035692,
+        0.15909367869059135,
+        0.1505502854047677,
+        0.1580759198695046
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.15589193638840676,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.15202302843463697,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.15976084434217655
+    },
+    "fixed_final_gap": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.9984375,
+        0.99453125,
+        0.9953125,
+        0.996875,
+        0.99296875,
+        0.99375
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.9953125,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.9936365759327319,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.9969884240672682
+    },
+    "intact_final": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.9984375,
+        0.99453125,
+        0.9953125,
+        0.996875,
+        0.99296875,
+        0.99375
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.9953125,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.9936365759327319,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.9969884240672682
+    },
+    "intact_gain": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.9229166666666667,
+        0.8854166666666666,
+        0.8916666666666667,
+        0.915625,
+        0.9135416666666667,
+        0.8979166666666667
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.904513888888889,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.8922188010921762,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.9168089766856017
+    },
+    "longitudinal_prediction": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        -0.1914970316001335,
+        -0.11060032001998224,
+        0.3519337723373017,
+        -0.15940144178461468,
+        -0.031659786360412105,
+        0.06185005515711246
+      ],
+      "mean": -0.013229125378454725,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": -0.17855622341174984,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.1520979726548404
+    },
+    "oracle_final_deficit": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        -0.0015625,
+        -0.00234375,
+        0.00078125,
+        0.0,
+        0.0,
+        0.00078125
+      ],
+      "mean": -0.00039062499999999997,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": -0.0014466683921824262,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.0006654183921824264
+    },
+    "plasticity_half_margin": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.4625,
+        0.4427083333333333,
+        0.4447916666666667,
+        0.4578125,
+        0.45677083333333335,
+        0.446875
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.45190972222222225,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.44521333243626815,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.45860611200817636
+    },
+    "raw_residual_corr_gap": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.9401277581254927,
+        0.9353464225770209,
+        0.9352498080080512,
+        0.9367540472064259,
+        0.9362840497603399,
+        0.9355348502240379
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.9365494893168947,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.9350289467868658,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.9380700318469237
+    },
+    "residual_outcome_accuracy": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.47921568627450983,
+        0.4325037209804715,
+        0.5127921509811274,
+        0.44666666666666666,
+        0.5519649400951131,
+        0.41638398141408794
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.47325452440199606,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.4306740367658226,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.5158350120381695
+    },
+    "residual_soma_corr": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.05735446556533124,
+        0.06224731268270242,
+        0.062235899314852315,
+        0.06073997274764899,
+        0.0612628264544092,
+        0.061830413709010906
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.060945148412325845,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.0594202043217156,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.062470092502936087
+    },
+    "residual_soma_outcome_gap": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        -0.020784313725490187,
+        -0.0988595400813215,
+        -0.03482689663792027,
+        -0.052941176470588235,
+        0.05314915471650674,
+        -0.10505238315798762
+      ],
+      "mean": -0.043219192559466844,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": -0.09100930014824121,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.0045709150293075165
+    },
+    "role_cosine": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.9416955351829529,
+        0.9398269414901733,
+        0.9520871758460998,
+        0.9311757802963256,
+        0.9371487736701966,
+        0.9351925492286682
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.9395211259524028,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.9336263303091779,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.9454159215956277
+    },
+    "sign_inversion": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.06994055094958167,
+        0.07068134584990464,
+        0.07150313872653485,
+        0.07189957458136215,
+        0.07022780440914672,
+        0.07303638286119367
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.07121479956295396,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.07025878960951078,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.07217080951639714
+    },
+    "surrounding_event_accuracy": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.5456515351256134,
+        0.5438804580537527,
+        0.5455560659350388,
+        0.5460839991778248,
+        0.5439111949883859,
+        0.5454214426617987
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.5450841159904024,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.54430518462589,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.5458630473549149
+    },
+    "velocity_advantage": {
+      "by_task_seed": [
+        0.6394704632197796,
+        0.6372119755930378,
+        0.6378044289587974,
+        0.6390554246633049,
+        0.6416655451011264,
+        0.6380723297239693
+      ],
+      "mean": 0.6388800278766692,
+      "one_sided_95pct_lower": 0.6375673989132559,
+      "one_sided_95pct_upper": 0.6401926568400825
+    }
+  },
+  "online_control_or_desired_velocity_established": false,
+  "oral_b_plasticity_innovation_established": false,
+  "positive_sign_count": 30,
+  "protocol": "oral_b_td_confirmation_v1",
+  "protocol_sha256": "3a1514e851e25e6f2588a46638992e3cb5530eb71ad79f45bb573d3a701d98bd",
+  "r1_gate_sha256": "ebb28c57461dae8334f623743145ad0a934a8fc14a96a1d877992b74daec6c8a",
+  "review_score_after": 7,
+  "review_score_before": 7,
+  "score_change_rule": "only a complete untouched R2 pass establishes oral-B innovation-guided plasticity; kappa=0 cannot establish online control",
+  "selected_eta": 0.1,
+  "source_commit": "1ff7cb7cf7cecd79cf5a0ab36c149342482c7005",
+  "source_sha256": {
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t10_m0.json": "ae925b5688fa0f4f4e70cd1d2e53ca904990e5f103d1e513812df64b7323d927",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t10_m1.json": "795a38d8935e313b94b9d1418dce297a3c7af826a63bb9a81c1d1ce4ac582344",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t10_m2.json": "b69ca03ee1e341d8e4d5413e56d0b586905de592449d81f3fd0a6656ef280315",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t10_m3.json": "ae707162f8686ba3067194a8fe5b8eee970130633a21c4fd46eb0e7608b26f49",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t10_m4.json": "ba36c954edc206a9641654cc49860a599f4f005000c961e73dba8e5ce107bf02",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t11_m0.json": "cc83ff125a71274d2e68ca7818b6019a4015a2fef0e3b5de17770794633d8796",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t11_m1.json": "72eaed85aebfc5c7f4d23c2c3e0a691d0e2b94c7ac8aa9db278bbf72348d0170",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t11_m2.json": "6de6c4aaaed93230c4bb896074cd358a885bc07a2afb230ec6d9c4f836074c8f",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t11_m3.json": "99433b4b283467c545ca439a596127ae98cde2ce8f91041027b6026e1821a4d2",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t11_m4.json": "3a48836a84cdbcadb02d5191be82d79df06a463a83614d92fa7bbda20be639d8",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t12_m0.json": "02a87d5df55ce1096f8d2e776b1f1090490b3ab3b2a11674c9000ddf5aabb1a0",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t12_m1.json": "09d97a8ff81c4c70004e5215aa45dda0429fdb931ead7789ba8a2ec367e1f95c",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t12_m2.json": "613acbc3a0b306ceba18471a430d180d6b8b637407688ad10f78fc709f07bb2f",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t12_m3.json": "ad37b53237667c70ce4fcf22311bca08102e418655036feb0a693fafe2a0f9d4",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t12_m4.json": "589359b99e45f2e44d9cb6a86de94c3ee7667c12f1fb5f43df43516318516fcd",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t13_m0.json": "4483eaa47e5bc0bc5a2dc20e18a1de9d0629f555435d7443c02f4024e1246e85",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t13_m1.json": "f31f04a14abcad3ba380ef954e28892ab20ad3e587150fac73cd7016c1e916a5",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t13_m2.json": "8a6586f59fe400f5783853b59deced860361e4347cc680773f1aa239cc7719ba",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t13_m3.json": "bf8174bf868087db13a987da7d06f6e062da02937c3585357679a04cd40e27d0",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t13_m4.json": "351d06fb144450157fb5776fc8cfd8ec0866b18ef1d51001e4ab2f4fed99a15e",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t14_m0.json": "83ca5dfd7c992cfb6e47f2e6110427560b9a2fc89a6a79dd502746cb1926462f",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t14_m1.json": "ca242f3cce0fe294a276797c1ef2d79ebede9d7410494cfeec911248bd1b6d98",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t14_m2.json": "4c1248f1c00877693522d61a78117360c681ee32dc1eba6dc84e9f06b3ee8b52",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t14_m3.json": "6c1e7cbe8e0b5875b2c673dba36368d37f570adc69dbed465cb71252dd522c9f",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t14_m4.json": "5658d308a9fbd6a48cda93e2b61b5c2f84e79df20265ab56ae20784893b63ce7",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t15_m0.json": "b9ce2e84c347e2cc64628123b6f9776e1bab3810ae647589e48d1c467daedbca",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t15_m1.json": "6a3890ed3b45f75aaa23b3fd112df7aad668349d6b5496c5e3cb3dc7fcb056cd",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t15_m2.json": "c685fc90f3432aad90ec8ffcaa3c668b529a84484c9ba9fcdf1e235bc8b2d955",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t15_m3.json": "9729db4965ac897ffe190682a23c61f865dad9a7ae1a6eda8b3eda030b3f7ad0",
+    "results/bci_td_confirmation/bci_td_confirm_t15_m4.json": "52479c6edf6af71ea948f6ef27eb9b97a1c5c4864efac605c2b50467442525b7"
+  },
+  "status": "failed"
+}