results: reject calibration-sample explanation at 2048 edges

1 files changed, 60 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/results/coupled_ladder/p4_constant256_analysis.json b/results/coupled_ladder/p4_constant256_analysis.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..21bf18a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/coupled_ladder/p4_constant256_analysis.json
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+{
+  "analysis": "side32_static_calibration_budget_stress",
+  "confirmatory": true,
+  "comparison": "16 versus 256 instruction-off observations per edge",
+  "bootstrap": {
+    "unit": "task; three component draws averaged within task",
+    "task_clusters": 40,
+    "replicates": 20000,
+    "seed": 20260829,
+    "interval": "percentile 95%"
+  },
+  "metrics": {
+    "classification_error": {
+      "budget16_mean": 0.271875,
+      "budget256_mean": 0.303125,
+      "budget256_improvement": -0.03125,
+      "paired_task_bootstrap_95ci": [
+        -0.059375,
+        -0.003125
+      ],
+      "higher_is_better": false
+    },
+    "classification_error_auc": {
+      "budget16_mean": 0.29671006944444445,
+      "budget256_mean": 0.2908246527777778,
+      "budget256_improvement": 0.005885416666666668,
+      "paired_task_bootstrap_95ci": [
+        -0.01811653645833334,
+        0.029548828124999982
+      ],
+      "higher_is_better": false
+    },
+    "stable_zero_fraction": {
+      "budget16_mean": 0.2333333333333333,
+      "budget256_mean": 0.2,
+      "budget256_improvement": -0.03333333333333334,
+      "paired_task_bootstrap_95ci": [
+        -0.09166666666666667,
+        0.025
+      ],
+      "higher_is_better": true
+    },
+    "local_scalar_reads_to_target": {
+      "budget16_mean": 9347072.0,
+      "budget256_mean": 9573717.333333334,
+      "budget256_improvement": -226645.3333333334,
+      "paired_task_bootstrap_95ci": [
+        -430080.0,
+        -10922.666666666744
+      ],
+      "higher_is_better": false
+    }
+  },
+  "decision_rule": "sampling-limited only if final error improves by at least 0.02 and the paired 95% interval excludes zero",
+  "sampling_limited": false,
+  "sources": {
+    "budget16": "results/coupled_ladder/p2_confirm_side32.json",
+    "budget256": "results/coupled_ladder/p4_constant256_side32.json"
+  }
+}