results: validate beta-independent Rain bias

1 files changed, 144 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/results/ep_bias/s3_summary.json b/results/ep_bias/s3_summary.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..47ee830
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/ep_bias/s3_summary.json
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+{
+  "bias_model": {
+    "depends_on_beta_sign": false,
+    "depends_on_clean_task_difference": false,
+    "normalization": "initial_free_layer_state_rms",
+    "ratio": 0.0002
+  },
+  "effects": {
+    "clean_minus_innovation_accuracy_points": 1.4000000000000012,
+    "constant_final_residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.02003074134273804,
+    "innovation_final_residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0024074442976448505,
+    "innovation_minus_constant_accuracy_points": 10.649999999999993,
+    "innovation_minus_raw_accuracy_points": 15.000000000000002,
+    "innovation_wall_over_clean": 0.9934842384103828
+  },
+  "random_beta_boundary": {
+    "fixed_negative_fails_with_zero_bias": true,
+    "interpretation": "Negative-beta relaxation is not a valid drop-in baseline under the pinned author's positive-EP hyperparameters. Random-sign beta requires separate stability work before comparison; this screen is not an SDIL win over a functioning random-beta method.",
+    "random_sign_fails_with_zero_bias": true
+  },
+  "rows": {
+    "clean": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 0,
+        "positive": 0
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {},
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.7915,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 32.58404016494751
+    },
+    "constant": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 0,
+        "positive": 0
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {
+        "bias_state_difference_rms": 6.859923823062401e-05,
+        "bias_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.03287761708718417,
+        "clean_state_difference_rms": 0.002086502742845201,
+        "neutral_observations": 128,
+        "residual_state_difference_rms": 4.179419675284569e-05,
+        "residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.02003074134273804,
+        "step": 236
+      },
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.671,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 32.619558334350586
+    },
+    "fixed_negative_zero_bias": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 237,
+        "positive": 0
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {
+        "bias_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "bias_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "clean_state_difference_rms": 0.004298488890043378,
+        "neutral_observations": 0,
+        "residual_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "step": 236
+      },
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.099,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 32.60152792930603
+    },
+    "innovation": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 0,
+        "positive": 0
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {
+        "bias_state_difference_rms": 6.27170698976096e-05,
+        "bias_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.021524865755300427,
+        "clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0029137031845211728,
+        "neutral_observations": 128,
+        "residual_state_difference_rms": 7.014578116605139e-06,
+        "residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0024074442976448505,
+        "step": 236
+      },
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.7775,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 32.3717303276062
+    },
+    "random_beta": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 122,
+        "positive": 115
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {
+        "bias_state_difference_rms": 6.120117185015426e-05,
+        "bias_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.014596019891031983,
+        "clean_state_difference_rms": 0.004193004141338366,
+        "neutral_observations": 0,
+        "residual_state_difference_rms": 6.120117105019515e-05,
+        "residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.014596019700247742,
+        "step": 236
+      },
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.099,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 31.93136191368103
+    },
+    "random_beta_zero_bias": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 122,
+        "positive": 115
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {
+        "bias_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "bias_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "clean_state_difference_rms": 0.00419313641524673,
+        "neutral_observations": 0,
+        "residual_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0,
+        "step": 236
+      },
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.099,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 32.36788892745972
+    },
+    "raw": {
+      "beta_sign_counts": {
+        "negative": 0,
+        "positive": 0
+      },
+      "final_corrector": {
+        "bias_state_difference_rms": 7.06939035519467e-05,
+        "bias_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.03239290974246007,
+        "clean_state_difference_rms": 0.002182388186612404,
+        "neutral_observations": 0,
+        "residual_state_difference_rms": 7.069390339161565e-05,
+        "residual_to_clean_state_difference_rms": 0.0323929096689942,
+        "step": 236
+      },
+      "final_validation_accuracy": 0.6275,
+      "finite": true,
+      "wall_seconds": 32.71566128730774
+    }
+  },
+  "stage": "rain_ep_beta_independent_hardware_bias_s3",
+  "status": "positive_single_seed_development_negative_beta_unavailable",
+  "test_policy": "new development train holdout data seed 6200"
+}