results: close Oral-A v3 causal-capture gate

1 files changed, 14 insertions, 5 deletions

diff --git a/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json b/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json
index 1b142df..b26d81e 100644
--- a/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json
+++ b/results/oral_a_failure_diagnosis.json
@@ -51,11 +51,12 @@
       "target power grows by orders of magnitude before nonfiniteness",
       "matched frozen-forward unit targets later yield only 0.0011 early-layer alignment",
       "structured learning reaches 0.0072 versus a 0.0240 cross-validated family oracle",
-      "unconstrained coefficients raise the same spatial basis oracle only to 0.0549"
+      "unconstrained coefficients raise the same spatial basis oracle only to 0.0549",
+      "direct A/G estimation leaves early alignment unchanged at 0.0071"
     ],
     "interpretation_limit": "instantaneous target metrics alone do not prove zero conditional learning; structured v2 has low instantaneous cosine yet positive exact-gradient alignment",
-    "next_design_constraint": "do not add the tested naive local-average/channel-mean bases; improve causal sample efficiency and use a more informative hierarchical or high-level contextual feedback signal",
-    "next_test_outcome": "representable-subspace perturbation improved exact alignment but failed the frozen early-layer causal-capture gate"
+    "next_design_constraint": "do not add the tested naive local-average/channel-mean bases; do not repeat the closed A/G rate grid; use a more informative hierarchical or high-level contextual feedback signal and audit remaining cross-layer noise",
+    "next_test_outcome": "representable-subspace perturbation improved alignment but failed; direct vectorizer-space estimation then improved only middle/late layers and also failed the frozen early-layer gate"
   },
   "frozen_outcome": {
     "confirmation_test_seeds_touched": false,
@@ -88,7 +89,14 @@
     "unit_target_all_layer_alignment": 0.011664319529173602,
     "unit_target_early_third_alignment": 0.0011051012067279469
   },
-  "protocol": "oral_a_A3_failure_diagnosis_v2",
+  "post_failure_v3_refinement": {
+    "matched_v2_all_layer_alignment": 0.052739956808325494,
+    "matched_v2_early_third_alignment": 0.007209058462952574,
+    "vectorizer_subspace_all_layer_alignment": 0.0625791079364717,
+    "vectorizer_subspace_early_third_alignment": 0.007139206010227402,
+    "vectorizer_subspace_gate_status": "failed"
+  },
+  "protocol": "oral_a_A3_failure_diagnosis_v3",
   "short_screen_contrast": {
     "accuracy": 0.4198,
     "early_third_alignment": 0.08889565182228883,
@@ -104,6 +112,7 @@
     "gate": "results/oral_a_full_gate.json",
     "representation": "results/oral_a_representation_diagnosis.json",
     "short": "results/oral_a_short/sdil_channel_gated_lr0.03.json",
-    "v2_gate": "results/oral_a_v2_calibration_gate.json"
+    "v2_gate": "results/oral_a_v2_calibration_gate.json",
+    "v3_gate": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration_gate.json"
   }
 }