results: close Oral-A v3 causal-capture gate

1 files changed, 115 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/results/oral_a_v3_calibration_gate.json b/results/oral_a_v3_calibration_gate.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c0364bc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/oral_a_v3_calibration_gate.json
@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+{
+  "checks": {
+    "all_four_records_finite": true,
+    "v3_all_layer_at_least_0.05": true,
+    "v3_candidate_selected": true,
+    "v3_early_gain_over_v2_at_least_0.01": false,
+    "v3_early_third_at_least_0.01": false,
+    "v3_reaches_60pct_of_family_oracle": false
+  },
+  "confirmation_test_seeds_touched": false,
+  "family_oracle_early_third": 0.02396580002561188,
+  "matched_v2_reference": {
+    "calibration_mode": "channel_subspace",
+    "eta_A": 0.01,
+    "finite": true,
+    "metric_space": "channel_basis_moments",
+    "metrics": {
+      "all_layer_alignment": 0.052739956808325494,
+      "early_third_alignment": 0.007209058462952574,
+      "mean_calibration_mse": 0.2708950854477958,
+      "mean_parameter_update_rms": 0.011981565658686305,
+      "mean_prediction_target_cosine": 0.00018159585958168355,
+      "mean_target_power": 0.2708926473589623
+    },
+    "path": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration/channel_subspace_etaA0.01.json",
+    "source_commit": "612196a53285b6efc44c0dd84699c7b57a6dc8e1"
+  },
+  "protocol": "oral_a_v3_vectorizer_causal_capture_v1",
+  "review_score_after": 5,
+  "review_score_before": 5,
+  "rows": [
+    {
+      "calibration_mode": "channel_subspace",
+      "eta_A": 0.01,
+      "finite": true,
+      "metric_space": "channel_basis_moments",
+      "metrics": {
+        "all_layer_alignment": 0.052739956808325494,
+        "early_third_alignment": 0.007209058462952574,
+        "mean_calibration_mse": 0.2708950854477958,
+        "mean_parameter_update_rms": 0.011981565658686305,
+        "mean_prediction_target_cosine": 0.00018159585958168355,
+        "mean_target_power": 0.2708926473589623
+      },
+      "path": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration/channel_subspace_etaA0.01.json",
+      "source_commit": "612196a53285b6efc44c0dd84699c7b57a6dc8e1"
+    },
+    {
+      "calibration_mode": "vectorizer_subspace",
+      "eta_A": 0.01,
+      "finite": true,
+      "metric_space": "vectorizer_parameter_gradients",
+      "metrics": {
+        "all_layer_alignment": 0.0625791079364717,
+        "early_third_alignment": 0.007139206010227402,
+        "mean_calibration_mse": 0.00019177845804523746,
+        "mean_parameter_update_rms": 0.010982968905010668,
+        "mean_prediction_target_cosine": 0.0018218688400943384,
+        "mean_target_power": 0.00019176158875808158
+      },
+      "path": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration/vectorizer_subspace_etaA0.01.json",
+      "source_commit": "612196a53285b6efc44c0dd84699c7b57a6dc8e1"
+    },
+    {
+      "calibration_mode": "vectorizer_subspace",
+      "eta_A": 0.1,
+      "finite": true,
+      "metric_space": "vectorizer_parameter_gradients",
+      "metrics": {
+        "all_layer_alignment": 0.0309489116587333,
+        "early_third_alignment": 0.004803654310914378,
+        "mean_calibration_mse": 0.0001923398035258008,
+        "mean_parameter_update_rms": 0.011050459120615532,
+        "mean_prediction_target_cosine": 0.0014602501420039524,
+        "mean_target_power": 0.00019176158875808158
+      },
+      "path": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration/vectorizer_subspace_etaA0.1.json",
+      "source_commit": "612196a53285b6efc44c0dd84699c7b57a6dc8e1"
+    },
+    {
+      "calibration_mode": "vectorizer_subspace",
+      "eta_A": 1.0,
+      "finite": true,
+      "metric_space": "vectorizer_parameter_gradients",
+      "metrics": {
+        "all_layer_alignment": 0.006801062087393611,
+        "early_third_alignment": 0.002233794856389674,
+        "mean_calibration_mse": 0.00019906028706469792,
+        "mean_parameter_update_rms": 0.01158272062540019,
+        "mean_prediction_target_cosine": -0.0001920852658946125,
+        "mean_target_power": 0.00019176158875808158
+      },
+      "path": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration/vectorizer_subspace_etaA1.0.json",
+      "source_commit": "612196a53285b6efc44c0dd84699c7b57a6dc8e1"
+    }
+  ],
+  "score_change_rule": "mechanics/calibration alone cannot raise score",
+  "selected_v3": {
+    "calibration_mode": "vectorizer_subspace",
+    "eta_A": 0.01,
+    "finite": true,
+    "metric_space": "vectorizer_parameter_gradients",
+    "metrics": {
+      "all_layer_alignment": 0.0625791079364717,
+      "early_third_alignment": 0.007139206010227402,
+      "mean_calibration_mse": 0.00019177845804523746,
+      "mean_parameter_update_rms": 0.010982968905010668,
+      "mean_prediction_target_cosine": 0.0018218688400943384,
+      "mean_target_power": 0.00019176158875808158
+    },
+    "path": "results/oral_a_v3_calibration/vectorizer_subspace_etaA0.01.json",
+    "source_commit": "612196a53285b6efc44c0dd84699c7b57a6dc8e1"
+  },
+  "status": "failed"
+}