analysis: test the frozen depth-retention margin

2 files changed, 60 insertions, 1 deletions

diff --git a/results/figs/main_figure_captions.md b/results/figs/main_figure_captions.md
index 03c16c8..6b8562e 100644
--- a/results/figs/main_figure_captions.md
+++ b/results/figs/main_figure_captions.md
@@ -22,6 +22,9 @@ depth and initialization seed. **c,** Mean per-sample cosine between the teachin
 descent direction, averaged over the earliest third of hidden layers. Exact gradients are used only
 for this diagnostic, never for local learning. “Scaling” here means preserving useful accuracy and
 credit assignment as depth grows; flattened-CIFAR accuracy itself does not increase with depth.
+Against the predeclared `-1`-point retention margin, the paired one-sided depth-5-to-60 test rejects
+a drop of at least one point for SDIL (`p=0.0037`) but not DFA (`p=0.2310`); results for every
+method are retained in the figure manifest.
 
 **Figure 3 | Somato-dendritic innovation is necessary under predictable apical traffic.** Mean ±
 sample standard deviation across five seeds on MNIST, using depth-3, width-256 networks for 15
diff --git a/results/figs/main_figure_manifest.json b/results/figs/main_figure_manifest.json
index 294cf94..46527d3 100644
--- a/results/figs/main_figure_manifest.json
+++ b/results/figs/main_figure_manifest.json
@@ -2373,7 +2373,21 @@
           8.59384509799933,
           8.346117401221937,
           8.787989553791133
-        ]
+        ],
+        "paired_accuracy_retention_test": {
+          "null": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change <= -1 point",
+          "alternative": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change > -1 point",
+          "predeclared_margin_points": -1.0,
+          "degrees_of_freedom": 4,
+          "t_statistic": 2.4311488030619435,
+          "one_sided_p": 0.03594586798395181,
+          "one_sided_95_lower_bound_points": -0.8672859622437409,
+          "two_sided_95_interval_points": [
+            -1.1531084453710267,
+            1.3091084453710273
+          ],
+          "reject_drop_at_least_1pt_alpha_0p05": true
+        }
       },
       "FA": {
         "seeds": [
@@ -2393,6 +2407,20 @@
           6.7033463045694015,
           9.101054953876158
         ],
+        "paired_accuracy_retention_test": {
+          "null": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change <= -1 point",
+          "alternative": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change > -1 point",
+          "predeclared_margin_points": -1.0,
+          "degrees_of_freedom": 4,
+          "t_statistic": 2.5357066333490828,
+          "one_sided_p": 0.03213672421335003,
+          "one_sided_95_lower_bound_points": -0.9197283470326103,
+          "two_sided_95_interval_points": [
+            -1.0478494586936888,
+            0.05584945869368485
+          ],
+          "reject_drop_at_least_1pt_alpha_0p05": true
+        },
         "d60_minus_d5_early_alignment_mean": -0.052620660066604596,
         "d60_minus_d5_early_alignment_sd": 0.013629272999240246
       },
@@ -2414,6 +2442,20 @@
           9.083443515320905,
           8.984656533045191
         ],
+        "paired_accuracy_retention_test": {
+          "null": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change <= -1 point",
+          "alternative": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change > -1 point",
+          "predeclared_margin_points": -1.0,
+          "degrees_of_freedom": 4,
+          "t_statistic": 0.8126587379130075,
+          "one_sided_p": 0.2310059494410654,
+          "one_sided_95_lower_bound_points": -1.211028859093041,
+          "two_sided_95_interval_points": [
+            -1.3141444444474168,
+            -0.4258555555525847
+          ],
+          "reject_drop_at_least_1pt_alpha_0p05": false
+        },
         "d60_minus_d5_early_alignment_mean": -0.46736509441630913,
         "d60_minus_d5_early_alignment_sd": 0.03641498460995918
       },
@@ -2435,6 +2477,20 @@
           9.78526636436608,
           10.016996559591552
         ],
+        "paired_accuracy_retention_test": {
+          "null": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change <= -1 point",
+          "alternative": "mean d60-minus-d5 accuracy change > -1 point",
+          "predeclared_margin_points": -1.0,
+          "degrees_of_freedom": 4,
+          "t_statistic": 5.030200405607772,
+          "one_sided_p": 0.003666228038780643,
+          "one_sided_95_lower_bound_points": -0.5471142775513921,
+          "two_sided_95_interval_points": [
+            -0.6478367613052975,
+            0.21983676130529367
+          ],
+          "reject_drop_at_least_1pt_alpha_0p05": true
+        },
         "d60_minus_d5_early_alignment_mean": -0.46029999762773516,
         "d60_minus_d5_early_alignment_sd": 0.02065602739281337
       }