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@@ -194,3 +194,29 @@ chooses four steps. The P2 mechanism endpoint uses four hidden layers, width
256, learning rate `0.03`, four-step history, 40 epochs, and model/minibatch
seeds `4101`, `4102`, and `4103`. No raw or SDIL result was run or read during
selection.
+
+## P2 outcome: diagonal predictor fails
+
+The task and raw-failure premises both hold, but the current SDIL predictor
+does not. Across seeds `4101--4103`, rollout success was
+
+| method | seed 4101 | seed 4102 | seed 4103 |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| BP | 80.8 | 83.6 | 73.6 |
+| clean KP | 67.2 | 77.0 | 68.4 |
+| raw shared KP | 0.0 | 23.2 | 6.8 |
+| diagonal per-cell SDIL | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
+
+Raw mission traffic therefore damages reciprocal KP by `53.8--70.2` points,
+but SDIL is never better than raw. Its neutral affine predictor explains only
+about `30--31%` of per-cell mission variance on average, and the worst layer
+retains about `60--62%` of the original context RMS. All runs remain finite,
+so this is a downstream learning failure rather than numerical termination.
+
+P2 closes the diagonal predictor on this task. The originally stated SDIL
+equation used a population map `P_l h_l`, whereas this implementation used only
+`p_li h_li + b_li`. A population-predictor rescue may proceed only through a
+neutral prediction screen that reads no action, teaching, raw, SDIL, or test
+outcome. If it cannot explain at least 80% of held-out mission-field variance
+and leave at most 25% context RMS in every layer, no further PickupLoc endpoint
+is run.