1 files changed, 73 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/experiments/analyze_traffic.py b/experiments/analyze_traffic.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..92faa13
--- /dev/null
+++ b/experiments/analyze_traffic.py
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+"""Audit development validation runs for endogenous apical traffic.
+
+This script deliberately refuses test-evaluated files: its output is for
+protocol selection, not a paper-facing test table.
+"""
+import glob
+import json
+import math
+import os
+import statistics
+
+
+ROOT = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))), "results")
+PREFIX = "traffic_dev_v1_"
+
+
+def mean_sd(values):
+    mean = statistics.mean(values)
+    sd = statistics.stdev(values) if len(values) > 1 else float("nan")
+    return mean, sd
+
+
+def load_rows():
+    rows = []
+    for path in sorted(glob.glob(os.path.join(ROOT, PREFIX + "*.json"))):
+        with open(path) as handle:
+            row = json.load(handle)
+        if row.get("final", {}).get("eval_split") != "validation":
+            raise RuntimeError(f"non-validation result in development sweep: {path}")
+        split = row.get("split", {})
+        if not split.get("validation_index_sha256"):
+            raise RuntimeError(f"missing validation split hash: {path}")
+        if row.get("provenance", {}).get("git_dirty") is not False:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"dirty or unknown source revision: {path}")
+        rows.append(row)
+    return rows
+
+
+def main():
+    rows = load_rows()
+    print("| dataset | traffic | scale | signal | n | validation acc (%) | traffic R2 |")
+    print("|:---|:---|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|")
+    groups = {}
+    for row in rows:
+        args = row["args"]
+        signal = "residual"
+        if not args["use_residual"]:
+            signal = "matched" if args["raw_scale_control"] == "match_innovation_norm" else "raw"
+        elif not args["p_neutral"]:
+            signal = "taskfit"
+        key = (args["dataset"], args["traffic_mode"], args["nuis_rho"], signal)
+        groups.setdefault(key, []).append(row)
+
+    for key in sorted(groups):
+        group = groups[key]
+        acc = [100 * row["final"]["val_acc"] for row in group]
+        r2 = [statistics.mean(v for v in row["final"]["traffic_r2"]
+                              if v is not None and math.isfinite(v))
+              for row in group
+              if any(v is not None and math.isfinite(v)
+                     for v in row["final"]["traffic_r2"])]
+        am, asd = mean_sd(acc)
+        r2_text = "—"
+        if r2:
+            rm, rsd = mean_sd(r2)
+            r2_text = f"{rm:.3f}" if len(r2) == 1 else f"{rm:.3f} ± {rsd:.3f}"
+        acc_text = f"{am:.3f}" if len(acc) == 1 else f"{am:.3f} ± {asd:.3f}"
+        print(f"| {key[0]} | {key[1]} | {key[2]:g} | {key[3]} | {len(group)} | "
+              f"{acc_text} | {r2_text} |")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()