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path: root/experiments/analyze_kp_stability_margin.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Audit and select the frozen S0 training-only stability margin."""
import argparse
import json
import math
import os
import statistics


MARGINS = (
    ("0p001", 0.001),
    ("0p003", 0.003),
    ("0p01", 0.01),
    ("0p03", 0.03),
)
SPLIT_HASH = "8328b206a97c420e49e54e3eca4abe3274c4756b084355784ea3fb8059e4515b"


def numeric_leaves(value):
    if isinstance(value, bool) or value is None:
        return
    if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
        yield float(value)
    elif isinstance(value, dict):
        for child in value.values():
            yield from numeric_leaves(child)
    elif isinstance(value, (list, tuple)):
        for child in value:
            yield from numeric_leaves(child)


def main():
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
    parser.add_argument(
        "--input_dir", default="results/kp_innovation_stability_grid")
    parser.add_argument(
        "--out", default="results/kp_innovation_stability_gate.json")
    args = parser.parse_args()
    records = {}
    source_commits = set()
    for label, margin in MARGINS:
        path = os.path.join(args.input_dir, f"margin_{label}.json")
        with open(path) as handle:
            record = json.load(handle)
        records[label] = record
        expected = {
            "protocol": "kp_mixed_traffic_nonfinite_diagnosis_v1",
            "scope": "training_only_no_validation_or_test_evaluation",
            "rule": "innovation",
            "predictor_mode": "closed_form",
            "predictor_every": 0,
            "max_steps": 352,
            "stability_margin": margin,
            "validation_evaluations": 0,
            "test_evaluations": 0,
        }
        for key, value in expected.items():
            if record.get(key) != value:
                raise ValueError(f"S0 {label} {key} drift")
        if record["provenance"]["git_tracked_dirty"]:
            raise ValueError(f"tracked-dirty S0 {label}")
        source_commits.add(record["provenance"]["git_commit"])
        if record["split"]["validation_index_sha256"] != SPLIT_HASH:
            raise ValueError(f"S0 {label} split drift")
    if len(source_commits) != 1:
        raise ValueError("S0 candidates must share one source revision")

    metrics = {}
    eligible = []
    checks = {}
    for label, margin in MARGINS:
        record = records[label]
        trajectory = record["trajectory"]
        if len(trajectory) != 352:
            raise ValueError(f"S0 {label} trajectory is incomplete")
        all_finite = all(math.isfinite(value) for value in
                         numeric_leaves(record))
        state_finite = all(
            value["all_finite"]
            for row in trajectory
            for value in row["parameter_state"].values())
        losses = [float(row["batch_loss"]) for row in trajectory]
        ratios = [float(row["teaching_rms"])
                  / max(float(row["instruction_rms"]), 1e-30)
                  for row in trajectory]
        forward_weight_max = max(float(
            row["parameter_state"]["forward_weight"][
                "max_abs_over_finite_tensors"]) for row in trajectory)
        feedback_weight_max = max(float(
            row["parameter_state"]["feedback_weight"][
                "max_abs_over_finite_tensors"]) for row in trajectory)
        forward_momentum_max = max(float(
            row["parameter_state"]["forward_momentum"][
                "max_abs_over_finite_tensors"]) for row in trajectory)
        feedback_momentum_max = max(float(
            row["parameter_state"]["feedback_momentum"][
                "max_abs_over_finite_tensors"]) for row in trajectory)
        fit = record["predictor_warmup"]["closed_form_fit"]
        ratio_errors = [abs(float(value) - 4.0) for value in
                        record["traffic_calibration"][
                            "realized_traffic_instruction_rms_ratio"]]
        candidate_checks = {
            "record_trajectory_and_state_finite": (
                all_finite and state_finite
                and record["first_any_nonfinite_step"] is None
                and record["first_training_failure_step"] is None),
            "maximum_batch_loss_at_most_10": max(losses) <= 10.0,
            "final_32_mean_loss_at_most_2p5": (
                statistics.mean(losses[-32:]) <= 2.5),
            "maximum_used_instruction_rms_ratio_at_most_2": (
                max(ratios) <= 2.0),
            "forward_and_feedback_weight_max_at_most_10": (
                forward_weight_max <= 10.0 and feedback_weight_max <= 10.0),
            "forward_and_feedback_momentum_max_at_most_50": (
                forward_momentum_max <= 50.0
                and feedback_momentum_max <= 50.0),
            "one_sided_closed_form_certificate": (
                int(fit["observations"]) == 64
                and float(fit["max_positive_residual_soma_slope"]) <= 1e-7),
            "predictor_frozen_during_task": all(
                row["predictor_updated"] is False for row in trajectory),
            "traffic_ratio_calibrated": max(ratio_errors) <= 1e-5,
            "task_loader_state_restored": (
                record["predictor_warmup"][
                    "task_loader_state_restored"] is True),
            "no_held_out_evaluations": (
                record["validation_evaluations"] == 0
                and record["test_evaluations"] == 0),
        }
        passed = all(candidate_checks.values())
        if passed:
            eligible.append((margin, label))
        checks[label] = candidate_checks
        metrics[label] = {
            "margin": margin,
            "eligible": passed,
            "maximum_batch_loss": max(losses),
            "final_32_mean_loss": statistics.mean(losses[-32:]),
            "maximum_used_instruction_rms_ratio": max(ratios),
            "maximum_forward_weight": forward_weight_max,
            "maximum_feedback_weight": feedback_weight_max,
            "maximum_forward_momentum": forward_momentum_max,
            "maximum_feedback_momentum": feedback_momentum_max,
            "max_positive_residual_soma_slope": float(
                fit["max_positive_residual_soma_slope"]),
            "min_residual_soma_slope": float(
                fit["min_residual_soma_slope"]),
            "maximum_initial_traffic_ratio_error": max(ratio_errors),
        }
    selected = min(eligible)[1] if eligible else None
    status = "passed" if selected is not None else "failed_no_eligible_margin"
    output = {
        "protocol": "kp_stability_margin_training_prefix_v1",
        "status": status,
        "selected": selected,
        "checks": checks,
        "metrics": metrics,
        "source_commit": next(iter(source_commits)),
        "validation_evaluations": 0,
        "test_evaluations": 0,
        "review_score_before": 5,
        "review_score_after": 5,
        "score_change_rule": (
            "training-only stability selection cannot change the paper score"),
    }
    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.out)), exist_ok=True)
    with open(args.out, "w") as handle:
        json.dump(output, handle, indent=2, sort_keys=True)
        handle.write("\n")
    print(json.dumps(output, indent=2))


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()