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path: root/experiments/analyze_oral_a_v4_calibration.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Audit and gate hierarchical feedback-parameter causal capture."""
import argparse
import glob
import json
import math
import os


SPLIT_HASH = "8328b206a97c420e49e54e3eca4abe3274c4756b084355784ea3fb8059e4515b"
RATES = (0.1, 1.0, 10.0)


def load(path):
    with open(path) as handle:
        record = json.load(handle)
    args = record["args"]
    mode = args.get("mode")
    if mode not in ("hfa", "lhfa"):
        raise ValueError(f"{path}: unexpected mode")
    expected = {
        "depth": 20, "width": 16, "seed": 0, "loader_seed": 0,
        "epochs": 0, "train_limit": 10000, "val_examples": 5000,
        "split_seed": 2027, "eval_split": "validation", "eval_every": 0,
        "normalization": "batchnorm", "a_scale": 1.0,
        "pert_directions": 1, "pert_every": 4, "pert_sigma": 0.01,
        "perturb_seed": 1000, "alignment_probe": 64,
    }
    for key, value in expected.items():
        if args.get(key) != value:
            raise ValueError(f"{path}: {key} drift")
    expected_warmup = 0 if mode == "hfa" else 400
    if args.get("a_warmup_steps") != expected_warmup:
        raise ValueError(f"{path}: feedback warmup drift")
    if mode == "lhfa" and float(args["eta_A"]) not in RATES:
        raise ValueError(f"{path}: unregistered feedback rate")
    if record["provenance"]["git_tracked_dirty"]:
        raise ValueError(f"tracked-dirty result: {path}")
    if record["split"]["validation_index_sha256"] != SPLIT_HASH:
        raise ValueError(f"split drift: {path}")
    if record["evaluation_protocol"]["test_evaluations"]:
        raise ValueError(f"test touched: {path}")
    expected_space = (None if mode == "hfa"
                      else "hierarchical_feedback_parameters")
    if record.get("calibration_metric_space") != expected_space:
        raise ValueError(f"metric-space drift: {path}")
    diagnostics = record.get("diagnostics")
    if diagnostics is None:
        raise ValueError(f"missing diagnostics: {path}")
    values = diagnostics["teaching_negative_gradient_cosine"]
    early_count = max(1, len(values) // 3)
    norm_ratios = diagnostics["feedback_forward_norm_ratio"]
    feedback_cosines = diagnostics["feedback_forward_cosine"]
    metrics = {
        "early_third_alignment": sum(values[:early_count]) / early_count,
        "all_layer_alignment": sum(values) / len(values),
        "mean_feedback_forward_cosine": (
            sum(feedback_cosines) / len(feedback_cosines)),
        "min_feedback_forward_norm_ratio": min(norm_ratios),
        "max_feedback_forward_norm_ratio": max(norm_ratios),
    }
    warmup = record.get("apical_warmup", {}).get("mean")
    if mode == "lhfa":
        if warmup is None:
            raise ValueError(f"missing calibration aggregate: {path}")
        metrics.update({
            "mean_calibration_mse": warmup["calibration_mse"],
            "mean_target_power": warmup["target_power"],
            "mean_prediction_target_cosine": (
                warmup["prediction_target_cosine"]),
            "mean_parameter_update_rms": warmup["parameter_update_rms"],
        })
    finite = (bool(record["final"]["finite"])
              and all(math.isfinite(value) for value in metrics.values()))
    return {
        "path": path, "mode": mode,
        "eta_A": (None if mode == "hfa" else float(args["eta_A"])),
        "metrics": metrics, "finite": finite,
        "logical_batch_loss_queries": int(
            record["work"]["logical_batch_loss_queries"]),
        "total_macs": int(record["work"]["total_macs_estimate"]),
        "source_commit": record["provenance"]["git_commit"],
    }


def main():
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
    parser.add_argument("--input", default="results/oral_a_v4_calibration")
    parser.add_argument(
        "--out", default="results/oral_a_v4_calibration_gate.json")
    args = parser.parse_args()
    rows = [load(path) for path in sorted(
        glob.glob(os.path.join(args.input, "*.json")))]
    references = [row for row in rows if row["mode"] == "hfa"]
    candidates = [row for row in rows if row["mode"] == "lhfa"]
    if len(references) != 1 or len(candidates) != len(RATES):
        raise ValueError("incomplete V4-1 method grid")
    if {row["eta_A"] for row in candidates} != set(RATES):
        raise ValueError("incomplete V4-1 rate grid")
    if len({row["source_commit"] for row in rows}) != 1:
        raise ValueError("V4-1 source commits differ")
    eligible = [row for row in candidates if row["finite"]]
    eligible.sort(key=lambda row: (
        -row["metrics"]["early_third_alignment"],
        -row["metrics"]["all_layer_alignment"], row["eta_A"]))
    selected = eligible[0] if eligible else None
    reference = references[0]
    checks = {
        "all_four_records_finite": all(row["finite"] for row in rows),
        "candidate_selected": selected is not None,
    }
    if selected is None:
        checks.update({
            "early_third_at_least_0.05": False,
            "all_layer_at_least_0.10": False,
            "early_gain_over_fixed_hfa_at_least_0.04": False,
            "feedback_norm_ratios_in_0.1_to_3": False,
        })
    else:
        metrics = selected["metrics"]
        checks.update({
            "early_third_at_least_0.05": (
                metrics["early_third_alignment"] >= 0.05),
            "all_layer_at_least_0.10": (
                metrics["all_layer_alignment"] >= 0.10),
            "early_gain_over_fixed_hfa_at_least_0.04": (
                metrics["early_third_alignment"]
                - reference["metrics"]["early_third_alignment"] >= 0.04),
            "feedback_norm_ratios_in_0.1_to_3": (
                metrics["min_feedback_forward_norm_ratio"] >= 0.1
                and metrics["max_feedback_forward_norm_ratio"] <= 3.0),
        })
    output = {
        "protocol": "oral_a_v4_hierarchical_causal_capture_v1",
        "status": "passed" if all(checks.values()) else "failed",
        "checks": checks, "rows": rows, "matched_fixed_hfa": reference,
        "selected_v4": selected, "confirmation_test_seeds_touched": False,
        "review_score_before": 5, "review_score_after": 5,
        "score_change_rule": "causal capture alone cannot raise score",
    }
    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(args.out)), exist_ok=True)
    with open(args.out, "w") as handle:
        json.dump(output, handle, indent=2, sort_keys=True)
        handle.write("\n")
    print(json.dumps({
        "status": output["status"], "checks": checks,
        "reference": reference, "selected_v4": selected,
    }, indent=2))


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()