Add 1450 checkpoint: Aragon wins Italy, Portugal Africa/Moluccas, Song crisis approaches

Key developments:
- Aragon wins Italian War: naval superiority + German Alps logistics problems + German internal crisis
  Aragon becomes Mediterranean great power (Barcelona to Naples)
- Portugal: Cape Colony, expanded East Africa, Moluccas backdoor (bypassing Song's Malacca)
- Northern Ulus vs Kalmar: ongoing Finnish frontier war
- Great Khanate: temporary stabilization via Kazakhstan but fundamentals unchanged
- Ilkhanate: industrialization advancing, approaching tipping point
- Song: second cold wave (~1460) will trigger the long-building North-South crisis
- Timurid-India: consolidating, preparing southern unification campaign

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

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-## Open Questions (Post-1425 Chronological Development)
-
-1. **Song's North-South crisis**: When does it break open? Second cold wave (~1460)?
-2. **Italy**: Renaissance dynamics with German-Aragon proxy rivalry?
-3. **Americas**: Portuguese colonization develops — what do they find? How does it affect Europe?
-4. **Reformation**: When does Hussite-type reform become a full break from Rome?
-5. **Ilkhanate vs Song**: Indian Ocean rivalry escalation?
-6. **Timurid-India**: Unification campaign — when and how far?
-7. **Great Khanate**: Does the Kazakhstan recovery stabilize it or just delay decline?
-8. **Northern Ulus vs Kalmar**: How does the Finnish/Baltic conflict develop?
+## 1450 Checkpoint
+
+### Portugal: Expanded African + Spice Islands Presence
+- **West African coast**: Deeper penetration than historical. Gold, slaves, sugar plantations.
+- **Cape Colony**: Portuguese establish permanent settlement at Cape of Good Hope (earlier than Dutch 1652 in our timeline). Essential waypoint for the Spice Islands route.
+- **East African coast**: Multiple trading posts (beyond historical Mozambique). Competing with Song's Zheng He-equivalent explorer's network.
+- **Spice Islands (Moluccas)**: Portuguese reach Moluccas via route bypassing Malacca:
+  - Cape → Mozambique Channel → Indian Ocean south → Timor Sea / Sunda Strait → Moluccas
+  - Exploit gaps in Song's control (Moluccas = Song Tier 5, minimal presence)
+  - Establish trading posts at Ternate, Tidore — direct access to cloves, nutmeg
+  - Song tolerates this: Moluccas are peripheral, Portuguese buying spices enriches the market, small European presence isn't threatening
+- **Overall**: Portugal's eastern empire is smaller than historical (no Goa, no Malacca, no Hormuz) but compensated by more extensive African colonization and Moluccas backdoor access.
+- **Columbus expedition**: Building toward ~1490s westward voyage under Portuguese flag.
+
+### Aragon Wins Italy (~1440s-1460)
+- **Aragon's advantages in the Italian War**:
+  - Mediterranean naval superiority (largest fleet in western Mediterranean)
+  - Operating from nearby bases (Sicily, Sardinia) — short supply lines
+  - Italian allies in the south (pro-Aragon Neapolitan factions)
+- **Germany's disadvantages**:
+  - Alps logistics nightmare (moving armies over mountain passes)
+  - Internal constitutional crisis (monarchy vs. republic) diverts attention
+  - Hanseatic cities reluctant to fund distant Italian wars (commercial, not military, culture)
+- **Result**: Aragon conquers Naples (~1442, as in history), then extends influence further:
+  - **Aragon sphere**: Naples, Sicily, Sardinia, parts of southern Papal States
+  - **German sphere shrinks**: Milan remains influenced but Germany can't sustain Italian campaigns
+  - **Venice**: Stays independent, pragmatically trades with everyone
+  - **Florence + Papal States**: Maintain independence but lean toward Aragon or neutrality
+- **Aragon becomes a genuine Mediterranean great power**: Catalonia-Aragon-Valencia-Languedoc-Navarre + Sicily + Sardinia + Naples = controls western Mediterranean from Barcelona to Naples
+- **Renaissance continues**: War stimulates rather than suppresses cultural flourishing. Military competition drives Song technology adoption. Political chaos inspires Machiavelli-type political philosophy.
+
+### Northern Ulus vs Kalmar: Finnish Frontier War
+- Ongoing low-intensity conflict in Finnish/Karelian forests
+- Neither side achieves decisive breakthrough (taiga terrain prevents it)
+- Northern Ulus pushes into eastern Finland/Karelia; Kalmar holds western Finland
+- Baltic coast: Northern Ulus consolidates control of Estonian/Latvian coast, reviving some Baltic trade (furs, timber to German/Scandinavian buyers)
+- Kalmar Union strengthened by external threat — internal Scandinavian unity improves
+
+### Great Khanate: Temporary Stabilization
+- Kazakhstan recovery provides some economic/territorial boost
+- Agricultural serfdom system in Ukraine/Hungary deepening
+- But fundamental problems unresolved: no industrialization, internal ethnic fractures, trade isolation
+- The Kazakhstan campaign bought time but didn't solve anything
+
+### Ilkhanate: Industrialization Advancing
+- Post-Timur expansion (Khorasan, western Afghanistan) consolidated
+- Persian bureaucracy driving economic modernization
+- Song technology imports (via Silk Road + maritime trade) being systematically adopted
+- Early factories in Isfahan, Tabriz? Textile production modernizing?
+- **Approaching a tipping point**: the Ilkhanate may achieve genuine industrialization by ~1500-1550
+- Egypt increasingly autonomous but still economically tied to the Ilkhanate system
+
+### Song Dynasty: Crisis Approaching
+- **Second cold wave (Spörer Minimum) begins ~1460** — agricultural crisis returns
+- This hits the SAME structural weaknesses that the first wave exposed:
+  - Southern agriculture declining again
+  - Northern industry relatively unaffected
+  - But now: land consolidation already completed by landlords (from first wave)
+  - Southern peasants have no buffer left
+  - Western Protectorate generals have built independent power bases
+- **Mandate of Heaven narrative intensifies**: folk religious movements, prophecies of dynastic change
+- **Timeline for open crisis: ~1460-1500**
+- Southeast Asian colonies provide some pressure relief (emigration outlet) but not enough
+
+### Timurid-Indian Empire
+- Consolidating control over Gangetic plain + Bengal
+- Preparing southern expansion (Deccan campaigns against Vijayanagara?)
+- Song economic penetration via Burma Road reaching Bengal — complex relationship (trade dependency + political independence)
+- Fire weapons acquired from Song → military modernization
+
+---
+
+## Open Questions (Post-1450 Chronological Development)
+
+1. **Song's North-South crisis (~1460-1500)**: How does it play out? Civil war? Peaceful restructuring? Western generals' role?
+2. **Columbus discovers Americas (~1490s)**: Portuguese colonization of the New World — what develops?
+3. **Reformation**: Hussite movement → when does it become a full break from Rome?
+4. **Ilkhanate industrialization**: Does it succeed? How does it change the global power balance?
+5. **Aragon as great power**: How far does it expand? North Africa? More of Italy?
+6. **Timurid-India unification**: Does it succeed? How does Song respond?
+7. **Great Khanate**: Stabilization or continued decline?
+8. **East Africa**: Song vs Portugal vs Ilkhanate — three-way colonial competition?