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| author | YurenHao0426 <blackhao0426@gmail.com> | 2026-06-29 12:15:51 -0500 |
|---|---|---|
| committer | YurenHao0426 <blackhao0426@gmail.com> | 2026-06-29 12:15:51 -0500 |
| commit | a6ec4288a2232988b130b2f00bb2565f81706966 (patch) | |
| tree | 1bb86e7f0b899b823b9e7fdf383e832d30a181e0 /analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md | |
Recursive reasoning dynamics: analysis pipeline, paper drafts, toy models
Failure=more-chaotic (task-general under validity labeling) reduces to convergence/completeness
detection; mechanism (transient chaos vs multistability vs input-induced) under investigation.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Diffstat (limited to 'analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md')
| -rw-r--r-- | analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md | 17 |
1 files changed, 17 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md b/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d90e02 --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_hrm26040_joint.md @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +# Early-window pairing — hrm26040_joint +- paired n=2048; final acc=0.5259; already-correct@step4=0.3447 +- of final-correct, fraction already correct@4: 0.6555 +- early-window lam1: final-correct med -0.1714, final-wrong med -0.1314 + +## Forecasting FINAL outcome from the first 4 ACT steps +- AUC(-lam1_early -> final correct) = 0.728 +- AUC(-drift@4 -> final correct) = 0.486 +- AUC(q_halt@4 -> final correct) = 0.908 +- reference: AUC(-lam1_full -> final correct) = 0.987 + +## Restricted to examples NOT yet correct at step 4 (the decision-relevant set) +- n=1342, of which eventually correct: 371 (0.276) +- AUC(-lam1_early -> eventually correct) = 0.448 +- AUC(-drift@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.312 +- AUC(q_halt@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.734 +- early lam1 med: eventually-correct -0.1225 vs never-correct -0.1314
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