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diff --git a/research/flossing/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_trm_official58590.md b/research/flossing/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_trm_official58590.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b29ab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/research/flossing/analysis_2x2/early_pairing_trm_official58590.md @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +# Early-window pairing — trm_official58590 +- paired n=2048; final acc=0.8760; already-correct@step4=0.6943 +- of final-correct, fraction already correct@4: 0.7926 +- early-window lam1: final-correct med +0.0178, final-wrong med +0.1075 + +## Forecasting FINAL outcome from the first 4 ACT steps +- AUC(-lam1_early -> final correct) = 0.891 +- AUC(-drift@4 -> final correct) = 0.800 +- AUC(q_halt@4 -> final correct) = 0.901 +- reference: AUC(-lam1_full -> final correct) = 0.993 + +## Restricted to examples NOT yet correct at step 4 (the decision-relevant set) +- n=626, of which eventually correct: 372 (0.594) +- AUC(-lam1_early -> eventually correct) = 0.543 +- AUC(-drift@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.492 +- AUC(q_halt@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.521 +- early lam1 med: eventually-correct +0.1060 vs never-correct +0.1075
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