blob: 2b29ab59c59321806f79a254d7295710432421a0 (
plain)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
|
# Early-window pairing — trm_official58590
- paired n=2048; final acc=0.8760; already-correct@step4=0.6943
- of final-correct, fraction already correct@4: 0.7926
- early-window lam1: final-correct med +0.0178, final-wrong med +0.1075
## Forecasting FINAL outcome from the first 4 ACT steps
- AUC(-lam1_early -> final correct) = 0.891
- AUC(-drift@4 -> final correct) = 0.800
- AUC(q_halt@4 -> final correct) = 0.901
- reference: AUC(-lam1_full -> final correct) = 0.993
## Restricted to examples NOT yet correct at step 4 (the decision-relevant set)
- n=626, of which eventually correct: 372 (0.594)
- AUC(-lam1_early -> eventually correct) = 0.543
- AUC(-drift@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.492
- AUC(q_halt@4 -> eventually correct) = 0.521
- early lam1 med: eventually-correct +0.1060 vs never-correct +0.1075
|
