results: close no-KP causal bootstrap screen

1 files changed, 24 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/ORAL_A_V5.md b/ORAL_A_V5.md
index c00e751..01a8ffa 100644
--- a/ORAL_A_V5.md
+++ b/ORAL_A_V5.md
@@ -99,3 +99,27 @@ the frozen local causal-fit confidence criterion is met.  Its exact cadence,
 confidence threshold, learning rates, cost gate, and accuracy gate must be
 fixed before any task endpoint is run.
 
+## Audited outcome (2026-08-06)
+
+V5-1 fails its causal-capture gate on clean source revision `6405220`.  All
+mechanical and accounting checks pass: the run is finite, uses exactly 380
+edge events, 760 logical batch-loss queries, and 48,640 per-example causal
+observations; forward parameters, BatchNorm state, and optimizer state remain
+bitwise unchanged; feedback norms stay in `[0.8778, 1.0036]` relative to their
+forward counterparts.
+
+The causal observations contain useful but depth-limited information.  Mean
+all-layer teaching alignment rises from fixed HFA's `0.011279` to `0.086687`,
+and the five latest hidden populations reach per-layer alignments
+`0.1992, 0.1397, 0.2924, 0.3837, 0.3418`.  However, early-third alignment is
+only `0.001147`, far below the frozen `0.10` threshold and only `0.001411`
+above fixed HFA.  Mean feedback/forward parameter cosine is just `0.013162`.
+Thus the signal improves layers close to the output but does not identify a
+deep feedback chain at this budget.
+
+No task-accuracy run, validation endpoint, test example, extra sweep, or rate
+recovery is opened.  V5 is closed and the reviewer score remains 5/10 for the
+standalone no-KP scaling claim.  A later branch may test a genuinely staged
+scheme that brings each child edge to a causal-fit confidence threshold before
+unlocking its parent; it must be treated as a new mechanism rather than a V5
+schedule rescue.